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Gustavo Tolosa: Dr Doug Lisle, PhD Update 3
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[Music] hello everyone and thank you for joining us i'm gustavo telosa the host of today's webinar and you probably know me from other webinars that i've done with dr mcdougall and chef aj and other doctors and today i have one of our star guests who everybody loves and adores and of course i can say it i think we have the best psychologists in the world and i know that chef aj agrees with me so this is dr doug lyle co-author of the pleasure trap and also the author um i think together with jen hogg of the website is team dynamics that later on i want to ask you a little bit about that and of course you can book a session with dr lyle himself when you go to his website steamdynamics.com and we're not going to spend any more time and introductions i will just um welcome you dr lyle how are you from coming forward good to see you guys it's always fun to just spend a few minutes with you thank you thank you really thank you i know how busy you are i really appreciate it and everybody here does so anyway uh and so you're safe no problems uh no crisis with the fire well now the fires are missing us and everything's okay because people are were concerned so good we're happy that you're doing well so dr lyle today we have a topic that people have been contacting me about and actually i am interested in it too and i have a few questions that people have emailed me but please feel free to uh you know talk about anything else you want we just love to hear you so one of the first one of the questions is is the coronavirus pandemic affecting our mental health um i i think that uh you might be able to make that case for some people i mean mental health is kind of a funny concept so uh let's i'm not sure and i think we i think we begin with a problem when it comes to defining mental health so the uh mental health isn't isn't the same thing to me as whether or not you are you are feeling good and happy okay so that's not that uh if you're if you're depressed because you're you're you're uh oh i don't know your cat died which is a depressing thing that that isn't affecting your mental health uh as i define it so mental health is is something that uh i'm trying to think about what i would even consider uh a mental health issue uh i'm not even so i i'm struggling as you can hear gestapo with the question itself so if the if the issue is that are people you know significantly less happy uh as a result of the coronavirus uh basically intruding on their resistance in a myriad of ways the answer is absolutely yes you could you could also argue and probably somebody could do this i don't know of any statistics on this but i've heard that such stats exist you could for example do a per capita you know week by week monthly month comparison of suicides you know around the globe and associated with lockdowns and so forth at that point you would have a case for quote mental health uh being impacted by this so yeah it probably wouldn't surprise me if it is so but for the average rank and file human that is just irritated and frustrated and feels constrained in your freedom being constrained uh and mildly threatened by the chronovirus in other words your existence is worse i wouldn't call that your mental health i would just call that the your your general uh your general situation in life as uh has you are worse off okay so if you if you have a job and you've been making 25 an hour and then they come along and they tell you well sorry we're gonna have to cut everybody to 22. that isn't that doesn't hurt your mental health it just makes your situation worse okay so the uh that that's how i look at this is that that you know people are less happy their lives are are on average have certainly been significantly negatively impacted some cases very significantly so but mental health is a i'm sniffing in there a a moral high ground but someone is attempting to grasp and get a hold of in order to possibly get some power to push back against some of the draconian government decisions and i understand that and that makes a lot of sense to me and if i can make that argument and make it stick and anybody would listen i would be i would do so uh but between you and me and the lamppost being locked down uh is not particularly troublesome to humans quote mental health i've worked for 10 years in a maximum security prison and those individuals did not quote crack up lose their mind get suicidal or anything else more than the average person in the street which is maybe a little surprising to people i can remember a uh psychologist that was new uh too that to the prison system uh he's a very arrogant guy and he was probably he was an old man he's about 60 which is younger than i am now but at the time i was a lot younger than he was and so uh he came in and and there was this seminar and they asked that the suicide was an extremely big issue in the prison system because you know people would sue um they would say oh you did you guys didn't do your job the health system didn't do their job so there was constant discussion about suicide mitigation and of course i looked at this and i completely rolled my eyes it was ludicrous and i'll tell you why in a second the the but this this guy uh i forget what his name was i swear his name was julian and his last name started with an r but we're really reaching back now for quite a while but i remember this arrogance of this guy acting like he knew what it was up when he didn't know much of anything about prison prison psychology forensic psychology or anything else and um he so it was asked well how many suicides do do people think you know uh took place last year in the prison system well i basically knew and assisted a prison system uh in california with a at that time maybe 150 to 170 000 prisoners there would typically be about 20 suicides a year so it was on the order of about 1 in 8 000 people uh would commit suicide every year which is completely almost identical and act back a little bit less than the base rate for the general population of the united states okay so there's no evidence at all that getting thrown in prison and incarcerated even in solitary confinement increases the likelihood of committing suicide this guy so they asked and this guy said you know 6 000. he had no idea he was off by a massive margin uh which shows you that scott uh this man had you know was using his sort of intuition uh that a lot of people will use when they're thinking about things like this so they don't they don't have a good feel for the numbers and so they don't you know etc so the same thing is true with you know problems with police and how often things happen that are very negative etc it's like no they're extremely rare uh in most countries where things go sideways significantly for anybody around the interaction with police the uh unbelievably rare by the way so the the same kind of thing that goes on here so i i will bet you that we will find that the base rate of suicide in the united us population or elsewhere is not dissimilar to where it always is it's probably going to be somewhere on the order of you know one in five to ten thousand a year any given population so uh anyway i i would be interested if i were to be corrected and it turned out that there was a significant uptick that we could point to coronavirus lockdowns and maybe there is but but whatever it is it's going to be extremely subtle um perhaps we moved from one in eight thousand to one and seven thousand uh in other words uh that that would be the kind of thing that we might look for but for the average human being uh all all we're talking about is being irritated depressed anxious that's what we're working on right right well i think you know i think that um the person that turned in that question was because i condensed it a little bit this person was talking about the anxiety and the the fear the stress you know we're seeing uh things for the vaccine against the vaccine that we're seeing um you know horrible photos or pictures of hospitals where they pose you know this is how you're going to end up and uh you know families being divided and you're losing some friends because of differences and all of that creates a lot of anxiety so one of the person is saying here um how would you would anxiety not be a part of mental health what is your definition of mental health yeah i guess that that's where we get down to so the um the let's for example let's suppose you're sitting out in the sun and it's 98 degrees and it's unpleasant uh are you being damaged well there's at some point where you might be damaged but uh and for example if it's in the direct sun you get sunburned yes in other words you can you can actually get some damage to it the uh but you can sit outside in not directly in the sunlight and be in 98 degree heat and be feeling unpleasant like it's an unpleasant situation and you feel hot and you're sweating and you're not comfortable you're not comfortable but are you being damaged and the answer is no okay so is that there is some point that you could be being damaged maybe uh if it if the heat stays if you're out there long enough uh essentially the stress of putting up with that excess heat could be in principle somewhat immunosuppressive uh for example in other words it degrades the just overall efficiency of the biology of the body so that's probably true by the way so uh but it's pretty minor so we're not going to be expecting much damage uh to to the the biology of the organism and what's been expected to recover extremely quickly as soon as that stressor is gone so that's how i would look at that and so yeah in terms of coronavirus and and all the uh a great deal of of the stress of coronavirus is social psychological so it's people arguing with each other people trying to force uh you know their agenda on other people the the stress of that this causes uh relationships of various kinds that that stress you are well adapted to that stress there was your your you lived in your ancestors lived in stone age villages and they were arguing all the time and had disagreements constantly and so you are built to be putting up with essentially the crap of the modern corporate environment the fact that you get to go home at night and don't put up with crap from the corporate environment and that you actually have your own existence independent of the corporate environment and the fact that you are free to lead that corporate environment and take your look at them take your look at the next corporate environment it might be worse or it might be better those are freedoms you didn't have in the stone age the stone age you're going to sleep with those people you wake up with them they're there all day long in every decision that you have so if you're in an acrimonious kind of situation with one or more of those people it's unpleasant so you are it's unpleasant the same way when it's a little bit hot it's unpleasant is it damaging no it's not damaging it's just unpleasant okay so that's how i look at this so we i don't want to pile on this question uh but it's also the case to keep in mind that unpleasantness is not nothing so unpleasantness this is your life uh you you can grow up with so and a pair of unpleasant parents or one unpleasant parents they're not going to damage you but it's like wow i had to be there for 18 years for god's sakes that was a lot of my life went down the drain with some some difficult uh parental situation or a big brother that was a just just a complete ass and you know made my life miserable it's like it didn't damage you it didn't stop your ability to be fully happy in full range of emotional reactivity and appropriateness to dealing with situational stressors in the future okay so but at the time it's miserable okay just like a a draconian boss at your work they're not it's not doing you any damage it's just like god 10 years under that sob until i got my pension and then when i got my attention i turned in my you know my resignation the next day you know i've had people do things just like that like they waited an extra month just to make sure there couldn't be an argument about the pension or whatever it was and then they quit okay i had a young lady that uh had about up to here with her administration uh recently and and i said well just from the standpoint of your own your financial situation your safety you should probably wait till the middle of september yeah she turned into resignation yesterday take her chances okay yeah yeah so yeah so the question is are we suffering behind the social psychological stresses of coronavirus absolutely we are the uh and from many different angles and uh it's a it's actually a very expensive human tragedy uh that it i mean it's it's tragic when anybody dies and it's tragic when anybody's very sick and they may not recover but the rest of it's a tragedy there's month weeks and months and the days and hours of people's lives are being impoverished and stressed behind all this kind of acrimonious tension and yeah it's an extremely expensive process uh in human nature vastly worse than it ever needed to be from any standpoint of humans against nature as a problem the problem is really not that great uh the problem exists and it's significant but but the the problem is being is being leveraged for people who are attempting to uh profit personally uh from this tragedy and there are many people that are profiting greatly from the strategy and they have uh there's a lot of power that makes that possible and as a result those individuals are out for themselves and i'm not going to name names but all you have to do is have a little bit of an imagination uh one thing in the united states that one can do is if you really want to scratch your beard hard and think find out whose stocks have gone up dramatically in the last 18 months and that starts to point the finger at individuals uh who have a great deal to gain by making this uh crisis vastly worse than than it would otherwise need to be dr talking about that topic of making this uh tragedy way way worse than it needs to be someone sent a question saying that in one of the first webinars that you and i did i think it was like a month after this all started last year uh you you mentioned that you thought that if this was going to be over by september october and we talked about some um numbers in germany and things like that so she this person says how's how has your opinion changed if has changed between that time and now do you think that this will ever end yeah my opinions changed a lot there's a lot i didn't understand about this so the um it turns out that the this sort of wave function that goes on with uh epidemics is a it's understood at the level of very high mathematics in a way that i didn't i didn't have any idea how this worked and so when i saw a wave coming down i assume that that was going to be the end of it in other words i thought that this thing had washed its way through the public uh in a way that it does and that we were at the end of it now now it turns out um the uh turns out that isn't the case and so we actually had our our big wave in the united states we had it last january february so the uh now we're having another wave and that wave is um pretty dramatically muted uh relative to the the big weight that took place this all has to do with uh this is like these are like equations that have about eight variables in them so if you remember your algebra from way back when you were a kid you remember that you know a couple of variables x and y are described as a linear function in other words that you draw a line y equals mx plus b uh if you then if you then add add more variables things get more complicated it turns out that the wave function of epidemics has several a whole host of variables uh that are involved i don't know they're like six seven eight variables involved and so it's very complicated in elegant mathematics the and it makes uh it makes predicting it difficult to do um in the blind in other words when you're at a when you're at a standstill at the bottom nobody kind of knows what's going to happen they can guess based on some of these variables but they actually can't know and then when a wave begins as they collect data they can start to see what the math must be that's actually underlying the situation or what it could be that may be causing the function that you're about to that you're observing okay so uh all in all there's some things that are obvious obviously extremely important which are how many people have been infected and how well do they carry uh defenses to future infection as a result of having been infected in one of these waves or you know at some at some point in the cycle the uh and it turns out that a great many people for example i'm thinking u.s but you could think anywhere a great many people were infected uh by the end of the big wave that took place in january february and as a result the delta wave is significantly muted from there it's another big wave though uh and the reason why it's as big as it is is because the virus is mutated uh in order to become more infectious so that's a very common issue in viruses if we put a stressor on the virus like for example social distancing or some vaccination type process then it's going to have to warm its way around those defenses and i don't know that uh that the virus the vaccination had anything to do with the variation of delta i don't think it did it may in the future but i don't believe it it did so far i think that what we saw in delta was just a common pattern of the virus uh finding ways to become more infectious uh in other words simplifying his process or having people in the genes engineering so you sneeze a little bit more often etc whatever it is that it manipulates the transmission situation uh it looks like delta virus delta variant is probably pretty significantly less severe in terms of its legality it's difficult to determine that for sure but it would appear to be solidly uh probably solidly the case as far as we can tell the um so but now of course in this process a great many more people will be infected and as those great many people are infected now they go into the column of people that are very well defended and therefore very unlikely to contract the virus or pass the virus in the future the the notion that the vaccines may help mute the the passage of the virus uh is you know was speculative and hopeful it doesn't look like it's very useful uh as far as that goes otherwise people that are vaccinated are are very commonly infected and are very commonly passing the virus on this is a this is not a very openly discussed fact uh and you won't see it in the a lot of the you won't see this as front page headlines for very long but it is in fact a known truth and therefore the all of the push that we have as a public health and safety issue for the vaccine in other words that it's going to help stop the spread and therefore help other people from getting infected and then save lives that doesn't appear to really hold much water uh that was a that was hopeful speculative and some early evidence that that might be true but it's gonna it's turning out that that variations of the virus worm their way around this pretty quickly and that the the defenses that are that are garnered from the vaccination or partial it's really a partial vaccination is what these are they may help people survive a severe course uh that appears to be the case and and so that's something to look at when every individual is trying to decide whether they should get a vaccination or no addict everybody has to weigh their own cost benefit about how vulnerable they personally feel about the chronic virus so it actually gets more specific depending upon where you are in the world this house how vulnerable do you feel about the delta variant okay so the um those are those are open and honest and legitimate questions for every individual to ask themselves it's hard to ask those questions in an environment where there's uh unbelievable motivation for major parties to try to uh constrain open open and reasonable scientific discussion it doesn't have to be a debate nobody needs to be angry about this or insistent we we need to all understand that we don't know uh and these are these are open questions for science right now on the cost benefit for the vaccine for example or a 30 year old normal functioning human the uh nobody can we know that the benefit uh from them personally would be minuscule the moral high ground to push it so hard was the notion that we could seal off the virus and essentially basically make the population unable to we could drive the virus into extinction if we could get enough people defended so that they wouldn't pass it there are vaccines that if you receive the vaccine you cannot be infected with the virus and you cannot pass it on so that becomes a very legitimate argument uh for public health strategy in other words i may not want to get the vaccine i may want to take my chances but if i do that i make other people susceptible because then i could be a carrier you know typhoid fever things like that the uh the chronic virus does not have that argument uh that is the argument that we hear routinely on in the united states we hear it 24 7 coming from various and sundry uh news sources and commentaries etc but this is uh the people that are making those comments are generally i believe nothing more than innocent ignorant people they are just you know journalists of some kind or somebody that's hired to write a 15 word piece for the new yorker magazine and they they are not cognizant of the facts uh the facts are very clear that any any virologist of any standing in any honesty will tell you that the coronavirus cannot be sealed okay this is we we at this moment in human history human beings do not have the ability to vaccinate you against coronavirus in a way that uh the word is sterilization i just it just occurs to me yeah so you cannot be sterilized from coronavirus the closest thing that you can do to be sterilized from coronavirus is to get coronavirus okay just to give you a feel for the extraordinary difference between the vax any vaccination and having had coronavirus the evidence from israel indicates that you are 27 times more likely to get coronavirus if you are vaccinated than if you had previously had coronavirus and you are unvaccinated in other words natural immunity is 27 times more effective than the vaccine okay so that tells us that the vaccine is effectively as a public health measure is a toy okay it's a cartoon vaccine now that cartoons can be cool and cartoons can actually sometimes be useful in the world i suppose and this particular vaccine could potentially save your life uh you personally but it's not going to stop the spread of coronal vitamins and that it will not do and so uh so there's been a great deal of stress on human society and human uh freedom behind a mistaken understanding that the chronovirus or the vaccine can sterilize populations and therefore stop the coronavirus from spreading this is a misunderstanding of epic proportions and uh and i think a great many well-meaning public servants have tried to have their societies go this direction only to find out that they will fail and uh and have unknowingly been handmaidens of some pretty uh extraordinary profiteering individuals and corporations uh that would just assume everybody be confused about that so this is unfortunate because in my line of work a great many people will call me and talk to me because they're having a lot of stress within their families because people are houses divided and you can only imagine someone who has believed in this mistaken uh what i could only call propaganda in other words propaganda meaning that the person who originally designed the argument knew full well that it was false they may have passed it on to a writer or a commentator or a tv personality that is absolutely innocent and is com in fact it's better if you do so the the the best way to lie is to pass it to somebody who is honest and decent and has uh people's is well meaning and hand it to them and explain to them that uh how this is and have them misunderstand it so in the united states for example a uh a rather beloved uh commentator uh in the world a lot of people don't like them but over the years over the many decades many many people do and for good reason uh man has a lot of integrity and a lot of intelligence a man named geraldo rebecca rivera and so uh geraldo is a powerfully insistent that everybody should be vaccinated and that this is a terrible thing to to and incredibly selfish and misguided and immoral for people to not be vaccinated the i don't believe that anybody is handing geraldo rivera a check to say this and um and i don't believe that harald rivera is by any means intentionally trying to mislead anybody i believe he's incredibly sincere man um he's a prosecutor you know in new york city and he's i mean he's a so well-known i i don't know him well for all i know he could be a total squeeze ball and he could be lying right to the camera but my intuition about geraldo has been that he speaks what his mind and his heart tells him and he tries to tell it straight and he's dead wrong he's he's horribly wrong okay and uh and i'm sure that very smart people that are hired by very powerful interest groups have care and trusted intent intelligent people have carefully misinstructed geraldo into not understanding the facts of biology and that leads geraldo to be vehement and moralistic and very effective at convincing all kinds of people who legitimately and for good reason trust geraldo and uh and thrall is just one example but world is an example that i happen to see on the television sometime in the last two weeks when i heard him i'm like i wasn't angry at her although i i rolled my eyes and thinking oh my god okay he's he totally doesn't understand okay so this is the problem so within families uh a a vaccinated individual that has bought this argument uh will tell their unvaccinated son-in-law my god you you are dangerous to me don't come over for thanksgiving and the vaccinated individual has no understanding that if that son-in-law was vaccinated it would not reduce their risk to you one percent they are just as likely to be infected with coronavirus and just as likely to spread it to you okay so this this is a this is an extraordinarily difficult thing to disillusion people of a story that has been orchestrated at the highest levels of world commerce and perpetrated uh by their handmaidens probably almost all of them completely innocently so we have a widespread misunderstanding about what is possible we have a whole continent in australia where the that i do not believe that the powers that be there are on the payola i don't think that they are getting checks from pfizer i don't believe that yeah i don't know but they they haven't been doing it their whole life they haven't been locking people up and throwing away the key and basically posing all kinds of brutal uh constraints on human freedom they haven't been doing that for the last 20 years why start now the answer is if you are living in fear and i have an enormous sense of responsibility and you have been told and misinstructed about the truth you will follow through and do incredibly dangerous things to people and not know that you're doing the wrong thing this whole thing gestavo reminds me of a chapter of mine that i wrote in the pleasure trap and it's called getting along without going along i believe and it's the story and i tell the story of the milgram study so stanley milgram study that was conducted in the early 1960s uh at yale university is the most famous and in my judgment the most important experiment in the history of psychology and it tells the story that average well-meaning totally decent human beings if you put them in the right set of circumstances they will kill other people that they just met and they will do so because they're told that it's the right thing to do and it's what they need to do and they'll know full well that they're doing it and they feel terrible about it but they are convinced that it's the right thing to do this is um this is what i see i see the a worldwide milgram experiment and i see many of our leaders doing their very best to try to do the right thing but somebody is telling them the experiment must go on the experiment must continue and that is a chilling phrase uh if you are a student of psychology the experiment must continue that those are the words that stanley milgram used to tell a subject that they needed to continue to shock a man in the next room who was screaming in agony and they knew had a heart condition and was saying he couldn't go on because the pain was too great and when they would turn to the experimenter and ask and say that guy's in terrible shape i can't do this all stanley milgram would say is the experiment must continue and that those types of words were enough you can imagine if it wasn't an experimenter that you just met 15 minutes ago but instead is a person that you know that you've met multiple times that is in a two thousand dollar suit that looks very casual perfect hair and and is it has a md and a phd from a very uh storied university and is the advisor to your country's health office and they're intimidated by that individual because they're in fact fancier in terms of their pedigree uh their their educational pedigree and achievements than your health minister is and they explain to the health minister that the experiment must go on the experiment must continue meanwhile people are screaming and rioting and swearing up and down they don't need this and that they don't want it and it doesn't make sense to them experiment must go on okay that's what i see and i'll tell you from from my tiny little corner of the world as i sit here and look at the obvious evidence that the uh the the virus excuse me the vaccine does not sterilize as soon as that as soon as that uh was was confirmed that was absolutely and unequivocally confirmed by the end of july okay so we have been more than a month now where in the united states the cdc and the fda and the nih uh and and the president of the united states and everybody else everybody knows that the the vaccine doesn't even come close to sterilizing you if you're vaccinated so they know immediately that there is absolutely no reason at all to have anything called a vaccine passport or any vaccine mandates because this is no longer a public health phenomenon this now becomes a a morally it becomes an issue of your own personal choice for you you are no longer making choices for others if you choose to be vaccinated or not if you choose to not be vaccinated you are not representing a greater danger to your fellow man that is not happening okay so now it's simply a matter of your personal individual choice do you choose to get this vaccine based on your understanding of its value for you okay that the governments of the world should be attempting to educate people in an unbiased fashion as best they can about the known cost benefits that's what the government's job is and the government you know the governments of the world legitimately should be making the vaccine free so that cost isn't a consideration for their citizenry that is makes complete sense to me okay so much of what has happened makes sense to me and much of what is now happening makes no sense at all okay and that is uh that is the reaction that everyone has more academical commentators at this point where we look at this and we say okay we had uncertainty in the science up until a month ago and now we have a great deal of certainty in science and and when it comes to the public health issue so now that's off the table and now what's left is how do we treat people whether they're vaccinated or not that have infections uh best that's a ongoing investigation for medical science and also how valuable are the vaccines and for whom in other words every category of individuals has a different cost benefit analysis and so governments should be seeking that information and attempting to distill it so that they can communicate to their populations about about how an individual if you're 42 years old and a woman in good health is this an important thing for you to do or not well here are the numbers uh this is what we would now understand at this moment in time those would be legitimate things for the government to do that's what i thought they were for that's what i thought the national institutes of health and the center for disease control and the food and drug administration i thought that that's what these things were for right now that's not what it looks like they are for looks like they have agendas that they are pushing and that people are uh afraid and confused and this is causing a lot of strife within families and between friends and uh a great deal of uh disruption is behind some very serious misunderstandings and a great deal of fear and you know i i hope that at the end of this some clarity is achieved but i don't know the java what's going to happen right no no it it seems difficult to that we will know what will happen sure but what you were mentioning is really uh go to go back to the beginning you were mentioning all this uh i mean there is a lot of stress on people whether they're on uh whether they are on the side that they want to be vaccinated and what everybody around them or the other side and and there's so frustration stress fear and so any any words of advice from you how to deal with it is i don't want to compare this to to the you know when you we start when we switch to a plant-based diet and we have our friends you know you know how are you going to do that why don't you try this you know in a way but you know and you give a conference on how to you know when you say well i'm just running an experiment we'll see if it works or not um what can who we you know what that's actually uh some of the tools that i have that i developed from dealing with the stressors of the plant-based diet problems over the last 30 years we can adapt some of those this and so the within families for example between two friends that disagree on this it's useful to to have the notion of hey i'm not sure you know i'm not sure what the best move is the uh let's take it from the standpoint let's suppose you're vaccinated and your friend is not vaccinated okay uh i i would encourage you to educate yourself uh for example and and come to come to understand that your friend is no greater risk to you than a vaccinated individual that's super useful so we know that's true so it appears actually that vaccinated people um because of their because they are actually buffered a little bit to some degree from the infection uh that they could be actually carrying more virus and therefore are more infectious than an unvaccinated individual would be if they get close to you so they also might get closer to you because they have less symptoms and therefore are less aware that they could be infected it could also easily believe that because they are vaccinated that they are relatively immune from infection which is not true so there is a the cdc uh is very clever in the propaganda saying well all very few people uh wind up being infected uh uh for example if they've been vaccinated well very few people that are unvaccinated are infected so they refuse to actually make apples to apples comparisons but when we actually see populations for example in brookline massachusetts where there's an outbreak as a result of a big shin dig where people were hanging out together and having you know sausages on the sidewalk and it turned out that 75 of the people that that uh were infected and came down with infections turned out to have been vaccinated okay doesn't surprise us about 75 percent of the area was vaccinated so essentially the vaccinations were about dead even in other words you're about as likely to get uh if there if half of the population is vaccinated in half the population is unvaccinated you're about 50 percent likely if you get the if you get the coronavirus you're just as likely to get it from a vaccinated person's as unvaccinated person if it happens to be in an area where there's a lot of people that are vaccinated then you're more likely to get it from a vaccinated person than an unvaccinated person so it's important for you to understand that so if you're a vaccinated person looking at this problem that your friends that are unvaccinated they are worried about side effects they are not irresponsible uh in any way in other words this is not an irresponsible position that they have uh you are not going to all you're not all in this together to stamp out the coronavirus that is a propaganda fantasy that is utterly unscientific and impossible okay so so if you are a vaccinated person and you are struggling with people in your friends and family that are not vaccinated understand that they are taking a risk that the vaccination could save them uh a nasty infection or death and it's a it's a risk that they are taking based on their fear of the side effects of vaccination you you know you could try to teach them that they are mistaken but that's difficult since nobody in the world knows so since that data doesn't exist you can't convincingly make that case because the data doesn't exist anywhere so there are people that thinks that data exists but that data does not exist so you might say oh but look at all the people in the hospitals that are dying that are unvaccinated versus unvaccinated ladies and gentlemen we do not have a long-term random assignment addition trial that actually indicates all cause mortality showing a benefit from vaccinating people over unvaccinated people that evidence does not exist that is the evidence that is required by any scientist that is making the claim that the vaccine is saving lives uh you don't have that evidence it may be that at some point we get evidence like that or we could get other other correlational evidence that could be overwhelmingly convincing i believe it probably does save lives in a subset of people so i don't believe that saving lives of people under 50 i think that that's unlikely based on the evidence that i've looked at i'm no authority on this stuff this is biosystem statistics at the highest level so uh martin koldorf at harvard university is a biostatistician at the very highest level and he believes that the vaccine is useful for elderly you know possibly immunocompromised individuals that he believes that it's a winner i hope he's right and i believe he probably is okay the rest of it martin koldorf rolls his eyes and says i'm not i don't want to quote him that basically under 50 doesn't look like it makes any sense now so if you're a vaccinated person and you are attempting to sell the vaccine to a person who doesn't want it that's a friend or family member understand that a leading biostatistician in the world sees no reason to support that decision for anybody under 50 and after that it's iffy and then there are subsets that he would say it looks like it's a win if you know that evidence really well then sell it if you don't know that evidence very well maybe you better just hope that you did a good thing for yourself and it was worth it and then it a good chance maybe it was okay but it's not for you to be pushing on anybody else it's their problem so uh so that's how i would look at it if i were vaccinated if i were unvaccinated and people were pushing me to take the vaccine my response to them would be listen i'm looking at it uh i have to try to analyze whether or not i think it's in my best interest i'm not sure uh there's a lot of different opinions out there and those opinions are a lot of times diametrically opposed to each other but there are very intelligent people on both sides of the question for me and so i can't answer it now i'm waiting for more data okay so that's what i'm trying to do so you could be right you know i could be missing about uh and and if they attack you that's your responsibility yeah that this is the point where we stand on say no i understand that that's incorrect and my understanding is is that you're just as likely to pass the virus if you're vaccinated as if you're investing so i'm not being a threat to anybody by leaving myself exposed the person who uh will pay the price for this if i'm mistaken is me okay so that's uh so that's what i'm gonna have to do until i see more convincing evidence so you absolutely could be right i could be missing a bet i may live live to regret this decision okay the uh and that that may be true but right now i'm gonna sit on the sidelines and wait until until there's more of the consensus because right now i don't see a consensus right yeah yeah yeah thank you for their concern well um you know there are a lot of comments going by too fast but one of the people here says all these comments reflect the confusion and side taking in society pretty sad state of affairs only time will tell who um you know who gets to say i told you so right that's what yeah i don't know i'm not interested in telling anybody i told you so okay so i'm hoping for example that the vaccines turn out to be in the final analysis when the honest tally is added up i hope that they were very effective and very useful um i hope i hope that that's true i hope that the the 150 million americans and other hundreds of millions of people around the world have taken the vaccine um i hope that that when we actually look at the entire accounting of the entire thing that we look back at this and believe that it was a it was worthwhile to do it the i'm completely don't know that at this at this date uh the fact that we pushed vaccines on a 60 percent of the united states population where world leading experts in biostatistics said that makes no sense at all okay and we didn't do that behind the argument that it was in those people's best interests we did that behind a mealy mouth hybrid argument out of out of uh that was that served the interests of corporate sponsors the idea that it was your personal responsibility okay so that was the that was the moral leverage here moral leverages was not you should do this because you need to be protected now that wasn't what the leverage was the leverage was you need to do this in order to save your grandmother and that turns out to be a false assumption and that false assumption was uncovered unequivocally by the end of july it was actually suspected considerably before then but by the end of july it was a known hard fact of science that being the case the leadership involved around the world but particularly indicting the united states because it's the they are the world leaders in commentary on this dr fauci and company these people had a moral responsibility to look in the camera and tell the truth very clearly about what the implications of these studies were okay they did not do so they have they are clearly all in on a mass vaccination a mandate strategy which makes no sense scientifically and is completely unethical because we have vast quantities of people for whom the cost-benefit analysis is exceedingly unlikely to be in the positive okay if you are 25 year old person and you are in very good health and athletic and you don't have any bizarre extremely unusual threat to your life the odds that that if we vaccinate a million of you that we that we will save somebody and that nobody else will be substantially harmed or hurt by this is insane cost-benefit analysis that you can monkey with a healthy human like this and make a profit on something like coronavirus is exceedingly unlikely to be true is it possible that if we throw them all in the pot from zero to a hundred that we have a net profit maybe okay so i'm not willing to indict the entire enterprise i am willing to indict the fact that there makes no sense to be pushing vaccination uh we can offer it to people uh you know if you're 42 years old and you say you know what i want the vaccine just in case fine i have no problem with that i'm not anti i don't think you should i don't think you should be banned from taking it okay uh but if you're that 42 year old and you look at your your personal risk profile and you say no i don't feel like doing that you should not be shamed or pressured or not allowed to enter a building or allowed to work in a capacity uh i want people to imagine the following fiasco with respect to health care because everybody immediately leads to health care and says oh yes but health care workers should be oxidative well that's a terrible mistake people that is a this is a this is a deep misunderstanding of the basic scientific and biological logic here i want you to think about two people that are nurses we won't be sexist here we're gonna call one of them john and the other one mary okay so we've got two nurses and these two nurses work with oh i don't know elderly people in a nursing home and so uh we're very worried about them passing the coronavirus to these people so uh we it turns out that we don't we don't make people get vaccinated so turns out half of them get vaccinated and half of them don't so john gets vaccinated but mary does not get vaccinated now john gets the coronavirus and he doesn't know that he has it he has a little bit of symptomatology but it's muted and he thinks to himself i'm fine i'm pretty sure i'm fine i can go to work mary gets the coronavirus because she's not vaccinated she is substantially more symptomatic and therefore decides you know what i'm not going to work i feel pretty bad if we were to do a tighter or to actually analyze how much coronavirus those two people have uh in their nose we would find out that john has just as much as mary except that john mary calls in sick john doesn't he feels pretty good he doesn't want to miss the money and he's pretty sure he's fine besides he's been told he's vaccinated so he's unlikely to have a virus it's probably not coronavirus it's just probably his allergies acting up oops okay this is a tragedy this is a mismanagement misunderstanding on a very simplistic notion that if i'm vaccined i'm i've been sterilized no okay that that fantasy has been perpetrated by vaccine manufacturers and government health officials and it is a pipe dream it was never true it was never likely to be true and now has been proven false so what really should happen in that nursing home is that everybody should be tested if you're going to work there you need to be tested consistently and often whether you're vaccinated or not and there should be no requirement that you'd be vaccinated because vaccination in no way protects the the people in that uh that are the patients in that nursing home at all there's no protection whatsoever okay so this is a uh this is a if anything you are a greater threat so this is a this is the deep misunderstanding and it's astonishing that i mean it's not so astonishing because i understand it's confusing because when we think think back saying we think we're protected we think we're sterilized and therefore we're safe and we've done the right thing we saved everybody no that's not that's not how it is these aren't these aren't traditional vaccines these are these are gene therapies it's a different thing okay they they give you some resistance they give you a leg up they give you an ability to fight the virus but they do not sterilize your brain buttons and so as a result the entire moral argument behind the modern uh crisis that we have in terms of governmental management and general public management is it shouldn't look anything like it looks and we are i'm reminded of that um it's an exciting moment in raiders of the last arc uh but it's it but it's upside down because it's tragic it's the it's the moment where harrison ford and his and his buddy uh figure out the map of the ancient city and then they look at what the nazis are doing and they say they're digging in the wrong place and they realize they've got it figured out and nobody else does well this is the the flip side of it it's tragic we are digging in the wrong place we're trying to get everybody vaccinated to protect the world now now we need to actually be working on therapeutic agents we need to have vaccines for people for whom the cost benefit is one tool that they can use we need to get people eating much healthier than they're eating to help defend themselves which turns out to be no small issue at all turns out to be a very very big issue uh with respect to how well you will withstand coronavitus and uh so we need actually public health officials speaking about the things that are very important and we need our great scientists uh directing their time and energy and and national resources and international resources towards very effective treatments of which there are some extremely promising things that are that are on the horizon and i believe it will be game changers i don't know what will happen i don't know whether or not the veil of mass ignorance and hypnotism and propaganda will be lifted and suddenly we will have rational discussion and rational decision making i don't know what's going to happen but i know that it's a heck of a mess well thank you dr lyle this was a very interesting i didn't want to interrupt you because uh you know it was very very eye-opening and um and we do have people that that are not happy about that and some who are so that's all yes that's how it is but i'm to close this webinar i would like to ask you to give us an update now switching to a little update about your uh upcoming book well i don't know if it's upcoming but it's your next book because people also ask about that all the time can you yes going on we're we are we are diligently working on this thing it's a it's a uh it's a major project uh it's uh people will understand why this is taking more time than we might have thought uh we will release for those of you in the living wisdom library we're actually going to release a little bit of it so that you can see what we're up to and uh and we'll probably be releasing little bits of it along we're not going to release too much because when you read it in whole the gestalt of it is we wouldn't want to wreck it but we will at least help help people understand but there is a real live book um i won't show you all the notes and the mess that's involved but here is oh here is the manuscript it's it's uh very large and a lot of editing needs to be done but uh it's the story uh it's actually the the pleasure trap was sort of the story of human health uh this book is the story of human happiness so this is the the other pillar of life on earth for humans is is basically the same way that the pleasure trap is the story of the fundamentals of human health that we think are often overlooked diet sleep exercise productive activity these are you know sunshine these are in water fasting these are super core pillars and fundamentals of health that are uh that when those things get out of balance those are our core problems uh or generators of the problems that people see the um in the same way there are fundamentals to happiness and those fundamentals are uh when when i work with people about things that they're struggling with we we are aiming at trying to analyze their their struggles through the lens of the same types of fundamentals that involve in health okay they look a little different they center on self-esteem and self-confidence uh that sort of thing and they uh there's there's much to that story anyway that's the story that we're telling and it's uh it's long and hopefully elegant and worth the wait all right very good well we look forward to getting our hands in the book and in the meantime it's true correctly that people can go to your website and they can schedule a session with dr hogg or with yourself he said absolutely and dr hawk and i also talk uh uh regularly to the living wisdom library the group of people that are uh joined are joined our sort of in-house thing how do we how do people listen to beat your jeans just look up beat your jeans on the web yeah okay and i think you can you can there's like over 250 episodes yeah oh yeah those are wonderful episodes really wonderful wow we'll do that we've taken the time and very good so much thank you it's invaluable thank you very good good luck good luck with all thanks for having me okay no my my pleasure bye bye everyone
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