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Beat Your Genes Podcast & More

Gustavo Tolosa: Dr Doug Lisle, PhD Follow up webinar to first COVID-19 webinar
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well hello and welcome everyone I am Gustavo tolosa the webinar host for today and very excited I know you all are I for me it's always like the first time with having dr. Lisle here with us is such a privilege and I know that there are always new viewers so I always like to read a very short bio although I should be reading like pages and pages about dr. Lisle we all admire him and personally I think he's just a nice a very nice genius because usually assists are not very sometimes they are not nice but this is a very nice genius so dr. Lyle received his undergraduate education from the University of California in San Diego and he come with honors and he completed his PhD in clinical psychology at the University of Virginia where he was awarded the president's fellowship and was a DuPont scholar he was then appointed lecturer in psychology at Stanford University and worked on the research staff at the Department of Veteran Affairs at the National Center for post-traumatic stress disorder in Palo Alto California his research and clinical interests have broadened to include health and wellness self-esteem relationship satisfaction the treatment of anxiety disorders and depression and optimizing achievement motivation in addition to his work with his team dynamics which I'm going to ask him either at the beginner at the end to tell us a little bit more about this wonderful website he is currently the staff psychologist add both the True North health center and the mcdougal wellness program both are located in Santa Rosa California and also he's a co-writer of one of the most amazing books that you all have to read now online that we meet every Saturday and I hope that we will be featuring this book in the future and it's called the pleasure trap so dr. Lyle thank you very much for making the time for us today it's a great pleasure as always next time we'll skip that introduction we'll get it done at once very good thank you it's great great to have you so dr. Lyle I have had many many requests to do a follow-up webinar with you from from our March 21st webinar when when we still didn't have a lot of the data or maybe wasn't accurate or as accurate as we would have liked it at that point right so part of this webinar is to talk a little bit about that and also for our viewers here since this is a live webinar to ask questions and I also have questions that people have emailed ahead of time so let me read one of the questions hold on just a minute and here I'm going to be looking down because I'm reading it so someone sent an email saying you said on March 21st that you were proud of the world for taking the measures that were taken given the information we had at the time you said that the evidence was starting to come in and that it didn't look as bad as we feared and that enriched respect we would see that it would be a massive overreaction do you still think that way or have you changed your mind in some way oh that's a great question mm-hmm no I'm glad it's actually good good to know what I said on March 21st yeah I I would say exactly the same thing I would say that the world has feverishly been paying attention to each other with you know obviously modern communications so that we're not talking about newsprint coming by boat three weeks later we're talking about people could find out what's going on in other countries so different governments can actually see what's happening inside other people's essentially living critical laboratories and so in this way the world's been trying to learn about this very fast and I think I think we know a great deal now there's still when I say we I would say that in a collective sense in other words what's known as a lot what's known inside of the average head of the average individual on earth is not very much so the so the but the the data and the the evidence about what we're facing and what we have faced is now becoming clearer the I am pretty amazed at how how much the world mobilized country by country each with their own flavor to try to figure out what it is that they were going to do and people people took a you know it's sort of a spectacular high energy very expensive process to try to curb this with varying degrees of results of which we're going to be learning about in the weeks and months to come as we go back and analyze the evidence in terms of my prediction that this was a big overreaction I think that's true I think we now we now know so much more than we did then again it isn't doesn't reach the news media apparently you have to remember the news media is full of perverse incentives so the the incentives are to have people terrified and to have them glued to their screens nothing glues people screens like fear and so the actual evidence about what's actually transpiring is extremely reassuring compared to what it is that we have thought we might be facing the the early what what drove the behavior of governments was a was the estimation out of Imperial College in London that this looked like it was a possibility of a one-percent fatality disease if that were true we wouldn't have been seeing a massive disaster the turns out that we're not looking at anything even remotely close to that so the let me give you an example of what what's actually happening so what's actually what we now know has transpired is that this is a disease which is essentially going to double your risk of death at whatever moment of life that you're in so if you're 13 years old your risk of death and then the next year is essentially zero and your odds the fact that Korona exists in the world basically two times zero is zero so we find out that in the United States which there's about I don't know forty million human beings that are below the age of 15 we have had precisely nine deaths attributed to where Korona had a hand in it nine and forty million okay there's that's like less than getting hit by lightning so the where we're gonna see as we look at the evidence as we get older and older in the population we're gonna see if you're 50 years old your odds of dying in the next year or they're very low but they're there so few people get cancer and die few people get heart attacks and die if you have the corona virus uh if you get the corona virus that effectively doubles your rate of death so it goes from extremely small to two times it's extremely small the now you can imagine what's going to happen if you're 80 years old so if you're 80 years old statistically the odds are that in the next year there's a 10% chance that you will die so that that is what stats are if you're 83 years old the odds are probably 11 or 12 percent chance that you're gonna die so starting at about age 80 you have about a 1 in 10 chance that you won't make it past 81 that's just the way it is that's you're starting to reach the limits of the human lifespan so you can see what's gonna happen with coronavirus that that your odds of dying of coronavirus are not surprisingly 1 out of 10 in other words it's uh so what's happening is effectively it's gonna double your rate of likelihood of death so there's a 10% chance that you were going to die of something and then we're gonna add 10% from corona so what the corona virus exists in the world so an 80 year old instead of having a 10% chance of death they have 20 if they're infected okay the now it doesn't quite work additively and independently that way so the mathematical geniuses are trying to figure this out now in order to estimate the overall social cost of the virus and it looks like a good guess is that probably two-thirds of the people that died of corona virus would have died in the next 12 months okay so that's an important way for us to look at corona virus and of course it's gonna also be the case that it we're gonna make that number bigger it's probably gonna push 80 percent if we go out to two years so essentially of everybody that's dying of corona virus so when in the united states is now eighty thousand people apparently so the of those eighty thousand people apparently about 55 thousand of those people would have died in the next 12 months the average length of the life without corona virus would have been six months okay so in other words if you're gonna die in the next year you might die twelve months from now you might die next week the average would be six months so so the karana virus is impacting two-thirds of all victims of coronavirus now are having an average reduction of life expectancy of six months that's important for us to understand when we're trying to essentially analyze what should the country and the world be doing in terms of mitigation action in order to reduce the tragedy the question is what is the tragedy certainly a tragic thing for someone to lose six months of their life but this is quite a bit different than someone dying in an auto accident at 40 who just lost 40 years they didn't lose six months okay it's in fact that's at 80 to one difference in terms of its ultimate impact so the vast majority of people in other words probably 80% would have died in the next two years with an average loss of life of one year so now now we can sit back and actually look at an overall understanding of this of the total human biological cost of rotavirus in principle the average individual that gets coronavirus essentially loses a year of life so that means that with a hundred thousand lives lost in the United States probably this summer behind coronavirus a hundred thousand life years will have been lost now in an auto accident you lose about 40 life years so it would take 2,500 auto accidents fatal auto accidents to lose a hundred thousand light years so essentially the corona virus is biological impact on United States will be the equivalent of 2,500 fatal auto accidents that's not nothing we have about 25,000 of those fatal auto accidents a year so this is the equivalent of a 10% increase in the fatality rate of auto accidents that that's not what it looks like when you hear the media blaring to you when you hear the media blaring to you and you see huge numbers yet it is a terrifying spectre to try to figure out what you're looking at human beings are not designed to do statistics they're not designed to do mathematics with symbolic logic they're just not designed to do it what they're designed to do is they're designed to live in little villages and listen to people's voices in the tone of those voices and to listen to what is that they say and to use that their emotions and their and their communications as a guidepost to what is true this is what I call computer checking it's the same type of mechanism that goes on at a watering hole on the African savannah where there's a bunch of animals around trying to get a drink of water and they're all watching each other to find it out when the birds start flying off and and the Kangaroos I guess there's no kangaroos after the when when everything starts to scram ie when the big predator comes in other words that everybody's piggybacking and computer checking on each other's computers to try to figure out what's real what's true and what's dangerous so we now live in an in a vast media echo chamber where the different media outlets are competing with each other to essentially make the the news sound grim terrifying and to have us on the edge of our seats you couldn't expect it to be otherwise there would be no other rational way to run a news agency than to constantly have headlining fearful fear-inducing news and that's what we have and now it starts out its fair when it starts out because they were afraid we were afraid the scientists were afraid and the politicians were afraid and all of us were afraid and it made sense that everybody's desperate to try to get their hands on the information and we had to we had to overreact and so exactly as I said on apparently March 21st I'm proud of the fact that the world was you know paying attention to this reacted to it overreacted to it didn't understand what they were dealing with and did everything that we could figure out how to do to try to get a handle on it fortunately now were you know six weeks later or seven weeks later and as a result we now know so much more so we didn't wind up with anything close to a one percent fatality it's some it's some substantial fraction it's maybe 0.2 or some estimates it might be 0.3 that's nowhere near point it's nowhere near 1% and and also more importantly than the the fatality ratio is who are the victims if the victims were more capricious and the average age of the victim was 50 then it would mean vastly greater amounts of life years lost to humans instead now we see who the victims are and we see you know not all there are 55 year old victims but remember there are a few people that are 55 that won't make it to 56 and there's reasons they won't make it to 56 is because they're very compromised and so some of those individuals that they catch Corona they won't see 57 as a result of that but those are rare cases and so when we look at the record we see that more people actually died incredibly this is an incredible stat I believe more people die have died that are over 90 then are between 80 and 90 now that's an amazing statistic I may have that wrong I could be that it's between 85 and 95 but I think it may be 90 plus okay so more people die from 85 to 95 for sure then have died between 75 and 85 now that's remarkable because there's an awful lot more people that are between 75 and 85 than are between 85 and 95 the reasons is is that if you're 88 years old your odds are not 10% that you will be dead in the next year or they're probably 25% so if you catch Corona it goes from 25 to 50 percent so in other words so we would expect that the older the people get if you're 92 the odds that you are going to pass away in the next year are probably 33 so if you get Corona it goes to 66 so you you can see why all of the marbles are stacked on the elderly and ill okay it's the weakest of your 80 year olds that are in trouble 90% of them would survive the virus and 10% of them won't so now now that we can sit back and actually look at the numbers and we can see the total biological cost book total human cost of this it's not nothing but it doesn't remotely approach the catastrophe that was feared and it was responsible for driving the the responses that the governments around the world have made to this now the realities of this are not politically easy to sort of describe and everyone wants to race to the front of the line and look like the humanitarian that cares equally about all people it is it is not possible or wise to care equally about all people in an important sense when it comes to your efforts in public health attention etc no no one that runs a hospital cares equally about all people in the sense that if you're in trouble you must triage and you have to figure out who you're gonna save and you have to basically direct your time and energy and efforts at the most effective way to get the biggest biological biggest benefit that you possibly can we now understand that we must be very fastidious and careful around nursing homes and adult living facilities etc where elderly people are they need to be protected with as much technology and intelligence as we can figure out how to muster however for the rest of the world it is not sensible and the payoff is absurd to keep people locked down and in fear the way they are this will eventually become obvious it is not obvious yet people still here in the middle of May they're still living in the media echo chamber and quite frankly there's still enough and certainty about some of the numbers that I'm talking about and the numbers themselves need to be analyzed and thought through carefully about what it is that we're talking about the it's also true and becoming evident it isn't necessarily useful that things like lock downs even work not if they're done in any kind of halfway measure so somewhere along the line here there's a very long answer to the question Gustavo but I'm gonna just continue on for just another minute on this somewhere along the line in in certainly the United States we morphed our goals to some degree socially we began with the scientists telling us well we began by having people say it's probably nothing oh that was a mistake okay then we had people say oh my god it could be unbelievably bad that wasn't a mistake that was a legitimate honest warning that says we better take this seriously the next thing was you know what if we're about to be hit by a pandemic then we better not overwhelm our hospital systems so we need to do what's called flatten the curve which is to reduce the the the speed of the spread of a virus so it is that we don't overwhelm our health systems that was totally intelligent as far as I was concerned I see no no possible argument with with such a strategy but somewhere along the line Savo it morphed okay and it morphed into well aren't we locking down so that we can just choke out the virus and have it be gone that's kind of what it morphed into and folks that was never a realistic possibility that doesn't make any sense if you have an isolated population and you can shut down all the borders of your country and you could control people's behavior in draconian fashion you might be able to pull that off in certain places in the world but you would never pull that off in a free society like the United States or the UK or anything like that there's just no way that's gonna happen you're not going to basically have people welded into their apartments that's not going to happen so as a result the virus is going to go through a revival process the only question is how does it go through does it go through quickly an overwhelming Health System or just to go through more slowly so that every way that you can help can be helped and that we don't displace health resources away from other people from other disease processes that could use them that was the logic that logic is impeccable as far as I'm concerned yet however psychologically morphed into well let's just all stay lockdown until it's gone I understand I understand why people would think so but that isn't going to happen wasn't going to happen and will not be the future of koban 19 this is going to be a virus that's going to be around for a while and there will be flare-ups of it we don't know how big and how bad they'll be we all know that it's going to be a lot less next year than it is this year because a lot of people have been exposed and there will be some degree of immunity we also know that we know so much more about that we have to focus we know the victims are so there will have to be tremendous focus on nursing facilities for elderly etc so we got to be much smarter about that so that our fatality rates will drop dramatically as a result of much better management of that problem but no we are not going to choke this to nothing now that that never was the goal it became the semi vague muddy goal in the heads of millions of people and is the sort of vague goal that remains out there but it simply doesn't make any sense so this epidemic will wash its way through the populations that it inhabits on the United States is now on the wane there'll be other places where it's waxing for a while and then it will go through its process and it will wane and then we will sit back and learn everything that we can about how to mitigate its effects the way we do with the flow and we'll go at it again when it arises again yeah we'll try to be smarter and reduce the overall human cost beyond now so I hope that this is a comprehensive sort of answer to to a very very good question and I would say the same thing that I said then that the it yet now it's very clear that the total biological cost is is nothing like we were trying to prepare for its kind of turn out that the economic costs are going to be huge because of a because what I consider to be now a current in future massive overreaction I think all the the efforts are being put in the wrong place in this vague notion of choking it out which you're not going to do and instead of where they need to be which is on high super-high vigilance around our elderly population they are elderly and ill population specifically so this is the story Humanity is using its ingenuity and its intelligence and unfortunately also there is some some other perverse incentives that will keep this from being managed optimally and it will be much more expensive than it needs to be however in the end when we look back over our shoulders six months or a year from now our anxiety is going to be vastly reduced and I actually believe that the anxiety in the u.s. will be vastly reduced in 60 days we will find out that that the process goes through it's curved it goes to it's infection cycle and even though we'll continue on and there will still be headlines the the number of tragedies will be reduced dramatically as the as the epidemic system essentially winds down that was a very ethical company I'm sorry very good thank you thank you so much you as usual Florida snail dr. Riya you know when we talk about to me okay when we talk about numbers and statistics I know that it may sound cold to people who someone here mentioned that she had lost three friends or three people that she knew so it's it's not that we that we mean to just just three people as numbers but you know I lost two people to heart attacks you know in these three months that I know and and they're you know so it touches us because people that we know but what you're trying to give us is the big picture of the panic that we were going right yeah and sooner or later human beings will get in touch with what the real risk factors are and and they will and then then the politics and the decision-making can follow okay politics and decision making really generally can't lead something like this they have to follow because they these people can't you know they can't afford to lose their career so they don't want to and so as a result they have to be essentially following what the the general tenor is of the humans in the society and that general tenor of humans in the society is now being whipped into to a very you know an extended fear reaction which is completely understandable and so with with this much media attention and this much catastrophizing you can you can better believe that the average person has a great deal of anxiety that will that will dissipate as people find out that that they're not seeing completely mystifying tragedies left right inside with so the person that you know the lost three people the three people they lost probably it makes sense according to what it is that we understand about coronavirus okay so it's unlikely that three healthy 55 year olds were lost that's undoubtedly not the case so I know I know of one individual that lost their lives with coronavirus that individual was in her it is and you know okay so that that's we could all we have to do is stare at the numbers and the charts and we see that this is true that doesn't mean that there won't be people that might not lose ten years of their life to Corona they might okay they might and that that is a tragedy but does level of tragedies are rare and so the as we begin to understand how rare those are the the fear will reduce considerably all right thank you I do want to mention that this webinar in the front page of the registration page said that it was going to be mostly about this topic so just in case because some people are wondering but it did say okay so Marilyn July of someone is asking a question that I think it's interesting I'm wondering to what is your view about mandatory co19 vaccinations hmm yeah I don't think that makes any sense anymore than mandatory flu vaccinations make any sense so the well we're going to understand that as I said the total cost of corona virus in the United States is in its future will be relatively trivial compared to everything else so compared to compared to for example the influence on the health of the of the population relative to smoking a smoking will drown coronavirus by a factor of a hundred to one or more in terms of its effect on people so the once again this is a this is a very good question born out of the intense scrutiny now that people have for this new threat as they listen to experts and a they have all kinds of fear about this and they're hoping desperately that there's going to be the solution in this threat when whereas if I were to tell you that the magnitude of this threat would be the loss would be massively more than than made up for yet people in the US they're smoking percentages from 14% down to 13% that would be vastly more months of human life we'd be saved so keep in mind that there's a massive program to go after very small potatoes ultimately is absurd now whether or not it happens or not is kind of not relevant in other words it very well may happen because it may have great political force but it doesn't have any legitimate practical argument and so now let's see what happens you know the probably these it turns out that just despite all kinds of controversy around immunization I think immunizations are are usually these days for an individual kind of an even bet in other words you get some benefit from being an immunized and you have some cost that are very small benefit very small costs in the end I'm not I'm not I don't have strong feelings about immunization particularly so I'm not too worried about what government makes what decision on that I can live with it either way all right thank you thank you very much someone it's asking to if you could please provide but I don't know if you're gonna do it like this or if you could send me an email or and I can provide it later provide sources for all numbers and reference so we can review them as well I don't know yeah the the the number of the the notion that that two-thirds of people would have died in the next year that's a I think what's the guy's name Neil Ferguson that's the that's the original architect the head of the Imperial College London model that drove this worldwide response to the pandemic in the first place so obviously highly respected group of people it's not just him on its own so if you look under Imperial College estimations of whatever it is I forget what numbers I was looking at but that that's where I got those numbers that and additional mathematicians are working on the same problem so you can if you you should be able to find those if you if you were to Google something that said something callous like would they have died anyway something like that you will eventually find your way to the mathematics and you'll see that that this has been deeply considered and been figured and I think that they've got some estimates that are pretty compelling all right very good thinking so another question is what would what would you suggest the basic precautions that we should take when we go out store or whatever I mean what what is common sense if there's such thing anymore well if we for me it would be thinking let's suppose that I heard that there was a major flip okay so if I if I in the world in a major flu then I'm wanting to stay away from anybody that looks like there's sniffling okay and which I do naturally and I I'm sort of a natural introvert and introverts are inherently uncomfortable by being close to other people and we actually believe the evolutionary reasons for that personality characteristic is a is a lower risk tolerance for infectious disease that that is actually a leading theory in the understanding of the evolution of introversion so this the the notion of standing six to eight feet away from people in line at a store and that this all comes pretty naturally to me when I was a kid and I would go for lunch at high school I wouldn't sit with the other kids at the cafeteria I would get my lunch and I would go out to a park and sit under a tree by myself that's that's how I spent my lunch hours as a high school student so the so what would I think now in other words if I heard that there was a raging flu epidemic then I would I would be less likely to be hanging out in restaurants and I would be one tables that were further apart from other people etc in other words all the sort of social distancing thing that we've now made everybody conscious of are things that I would have done naturally in in the face of some kind of nasty flu virus and I think that that's what most of us should be looking at at this and analyzing it for what it is the if you have if you have elderly people close to you which I do I have an 87 year old mother so I'm I'm extra the city Asst as I would be probably thinking along those lines in other words if I started to feel sick I would tell my mother which I have in the last few years I'm saying hey listen I'm not gonna come over and visit today I'm feeling like I could be getting sick so I was not even wanting to give her a cold because a cold that at 87 years old you know could be serious trouble and so that's how I would look at it in other words protect the people close to you that may be vulnerable protect yourself just because not not that you might be fear of your own death I don't I I no longer fear Crona virus in the way that I might have feared six weeks ago before we have the evidence so now I don't fear it in terms of a life threat I fear it in terms of I don't want to go through a nasty flu and I I don't want to spend three weeks in my life super uncomfortable and you know in trouble I have a friend of mine right now with coronavirus who incidentally had been very carefully isolating herself for the last month got in anyway so I don't know how the must have come in on a package outside of her front door that's really the only way that could have happened um in anyway so she has it and she's had it for about ten days and you know it's uncomfortable and clammy and she's got a fever and she's in her 50s so she's going through what we go through when we have relatively on you know pre unpleasant thing so that's what I would say the the worldwide fascination with wearing masks I think is is going to come to an end probably relatively soon as the data starts to come in and explaining that this isn't helping so on we go with our adventure and coronavirus and and we will but I'll go out and wear a mask if it's required for me to get new historic with my mask on in other words I'm not a I'm not I'm not a civil rights Patriot that wants to take on a world put it right with the sword I don't follow the rules but I'm also realistic in and looking at recent human fashionable behavior and fear and I recognize that this is all going to come to an increase in so one of the questions that people are asking is what you just mentioned about wearing a mask I mean what would if we required like I cannot go to the supermarket without a mask because they're going in right buddy walking out if I'm in the backyard in the Sun I'm not gonna be wearing a mask so what who are the people that you would say need to wear masks or is it how efficient is that that's the main question going on here I don't think there's any evidence to support its use okay so I think that this is a hmm obviously somewhere somehow if if someone is sniffling and sneezing and as coronavirus and they sneeze all over you then yes you would have been probably better off with a mask then and you would have been better off that they have mask them so the statistical odds of that being the way that somehow this mask is gonna protect you I think are really remote and so the and like I said the scientists many of the world's leading infectious disease scientists are rolling their eyeballs and just shrugging their shoulders okay so fair enough if that's something gives people something to do to give them some sense of control over this process and if they if the governments and governors want to insist on this because it makes that makes it look like they're doing something and doing everything we can you know fair enough but so I'll follow the rules but the rules are going to and what the change of the rules is not going to increase or impact your risk levels the risk levels of Kuran are what they're gonna be this thing has it's essentially a life of its own and we will learn as we go about what that life is going to look like and we'll also learn how to treat it better maybe we may eventually wind up with a vaccine we may or we may not want to wind up with vaccine we've had coronaviruses around forever common cold we haven't got a vaccine yet okay so this is a so this is a challenge for science and they may pull something off I think more likely probably more likely than that is the likelihood that we will learn little bit better ways of mitigating the effect and so that we won't have there quite so many of these compromised people having to pay this price and so I think that's much more likely than then we're gonna fix it on a systemic basis by somehow immunizing were masking the world so that it gets stamped out I don't think that's gonna happen alright alright thank you very much dr. Lyle another question or concern that many people have is the amount of misinformation out there and we hear because this you know this you know this statistic and and have you heard that this and have you heard of that and actually being right here in the chat I mean there's a lot of and look at this look at these numbers well enough but look at these numbers and so yeah how could we balance this so that we will not just like lose our minds because it really is great and part of it is what you were saying is connected to the media yes and what could a person do to some get some kind of balance just just not watching you so what should we do yeah I would say the following a useful thing for me is I've gone to the CDC website United States CDC where they record the actual document and and if you if you look at that you'll see that at this point it's around fifty thousand and we know that there are more coming because the takes a week or two for these two to be tabulated and then recorded at the CDC but but we will see that this the process and you'll also then be able to look up different tables that will tell you for example about the demographics of the victims and so you can see for example you can see the age breakdown so I have a friend of mine who is around 50 and so she was she just wanted to know well now you keep saying it's not that big a risk but you know what's my situation so I looked it up and it turns out that in the United States I think there's around 20 million women between the ages of 45 and 54 I think I you could if you look it up right on that table it will tell you I think that's about what it is so so of those 20 million there have been about 490 kovat related deaths so that's 500 people out of 20 million so if we start to do the math that would be the same as 50 out of two million or five out of two hundred thousand or one in 40,000 okay so your odds of dying in an auto accident this year or one in 5,000 so far through the through the majority of the Cova Depa demmick in the United States if you're a 50 year old woman your odds are one in 40,000 so you are eight times greater risk in your car then you are from Kovac that's important for you to realize and to calibrate so it isn't think obit is zero it's just that you have to hope that if you're a 50 year old lady that you are one of the thirty nine thousand nine hundred and ninety-nine out of forty thousand that doesn't die of Kovac okay that's a way to sort but these things in perspective so when you see these numbers also I had a woman really worried about her children very reasonable she called me up and said listen my kids have asthma and you know and I'm worried about the Kovan virus because of its respiratory impact and I said well let's look it up so we looked it up on the CDC website and there are nine fatalities of people fifteen years of age and younger in the United States which represents 40 or 50 million people so it's it's one in five million okay so this is a it's useful sometimes some people get reassured by numbers that's me other people are terrified by any number at all so I have I have my my friend Larry who's a little bit obsessive-compulsive and if he sees you know if he saw a number like four children you know age under 10 out of 19 million he would say oh my god that if I have a kid that could be about four there's four right there so he can't handle any risk that way it bothers him 4 out of 19 4 out of 19 million it all looks the same to him so if you're just a person who any any possibility is enough to ring your chimes and I would say just try to stay out of the discussion altogether and just turn off the TV and just try to get away from this and listen to Mozart because you're you're gonna just you're gonna get shouted down in terms of your own anxiety about this if you're someone who's more comfortable with members and can sort of picture and essentially get a feel for what this means that if you understand that you have for example in your lifetime a risk that you take in this lifetime is that we operate in vehicles and so you have about a 1 in 60 chance of dying on on the roads in the United States that is a that's just it's an amazingly high statistic it's been dropping for decades as the cars get safer but it's there and it's something it's a risk that we all take we go our whole lifetimes with this now my age it's now less because I've lived the riskiest part so in the rest of my life my odds are probably 1 in 200 but one in 200 that seems still seems high in any given year remains about 1 in 5,000 so but remember 1 in 5000 at my age my odds of corona are probably one in ten thousand and one in 15,000 though I would be a fatality of Corona so similarly well not quite similarly with with auto accidents a lot of accidents have a capriciousness that is terrifying in other words you're going through an intersection is something somebody in a truck hits you it's like you could take your whole life through no fault of your own and you couldn't see it coming corona is not that ok Corona is there are things that you can do if you're very worried about Corona you're 66 years old and and you are not in very good condition etc and you're worried about Corona don't be worried about Corona get healthy okay so the vast majority of 66 year olds that would ever come down with Corona would survive it if you wouldn't be one of the survivors it's because you're way too close to the line with your health so you can you can take charge of your risk in a way that you would take charge in your risk in a car and yet better than that in your car you buy a big strong car with good safety equipment you don't drink and drive and you you try to stay off the roads as much as possible and you always wear your seatbelt ok so there's things that you can do to substantially mitigate your risk you could probably do even better mitigation of your risk with Corona if you eat healthfully get yourself in better condition essentially put your cigarette smoking which is a lot of the victims in other words if you do all the things to make sure that your cardiovascular and general health function are good and your immune system is strong then you shouldn't be a victim of this ok so that's that's what I would say about the message here that you actually exercise tremendous control over this particular thing and it is not as big a threat as a motor vehicle that's a way to look at it alright right well that is very get healthy and reduce your chances and maybe that's a topic for some other time I do want to answer someone that was asking yes this webinar is recorded and later on everybody will receive an email with the recording of it and then you can share it out one last question dr. Lyle there are many many but obviously we won't be able to get through them but someone asked if let's see hold on just a minute I would be interested to know why many it seems are using this time of confinement to indulge themselves in the pleasure trap is it energy energy conservation at work a more primal response when our survival is threatened or our personality dynamics take over when routines are disrupted what do you think well I think it's a great it's a great curiosity I think that I'm not sure that actually anything of the kind is happening in other words we would I mean it's it's an interesting speculation I've read about how I don't know cookie sales are going through the ceiling but that's just because restaurant chocolate shakes are not being eaten so I'm not sure that the the the net effect of coronavirus has been to reduce anybody's self discipline with respect to their their food choices I don't know that that's true you certainly can imagine that it will be the subjective inference of many people who will go that route so in other words there will be people that for a variety of reasons that if we if we were thinking about a beach vacation in March and we were getting our act together and then by April we realize there'll be no beach vacation this year so why do I have to worry about my waistline okay so the the the the amount and and different angles from which this could impact your motivation are varied we do know that almost anything any change shifting motivation around any way to make it either easier to get junk food or more socially acceptable to get junk food is going to result in more junk food and the reason is is that that you're you're essentially will to do a really good job with respect to your health around food choices is fighting every instinct that there is in human nature all of the instincts in human nature essentially our direct dead on located towards the pleasure drop it's all about trying to get the most for the least and so that means the most possible concentrated dr. death calories that you can get for the least amount of ever possible so yet if you had a routine that was working for you where you were kind of up the learning curve and you know there's a particular place you went for lunch everyday that had a big salad and that's a little burrito and that's what you did in between your your your dividing up your workday and now you can't go to that place and you're having to stay home and fix it yourself and you're not up the learning curve and you don't want to do it etc now so what are you gonna do eat something easy and junky instead okay so essentially any possible disruptive process excuse or anything else is very likely to wait the error towards the pleasure drop it isn't that it has to it's just that it likely will because that's where the instincts are going finding the pleasure trap requires an active high level of motivation it requires a feedback system of feeling good physically as well as self-esteem that comes from having done a really good job that can spin its way into a beautiful achievement cycle that sometimes people are able to sustain for very long periods of time what we typically find is that when some shift happens in their life to disrupt it a new relationship new job new location etc then typically then they get into trouble just because that amount it's not easy to sustain an excellent pattern of behavior in the face of the pleasure trap which is constantly nagging at you to go that direction that's because it's human instinct and the biggest problem in human nature was calorie deficiency for survival and the pleasure trapped is a massive trap basically saying eat the richest thing and you will be safe so that's that's what I think that probably is so I think that the person's observation or intuition about something happening is accurate but I think those are some of the the more nuanced explanations for for why it's going to be probably typically more difficult now than it might have been if you had been in a beautiful room before dr. Lisle to finish today this may be too much to ask and because I don't know but we've been talking about you have been mentioned in the pleasure trap would it be too much to ask to tell people in a nutshell what the pleasure trap is I mean I know this is a topic that takes hours to develop and talk and explain could you just give us sure I'll give you an example of the pleasure trap I have I have cats and I have cat food that is healthy for them which is leaner which would keep them leaner and that's what they eat and then I have treats that I give them because I know that they love these things that are richer I think they're greasy ER and they have like salmon in them or whatever it is and they go crazy over these things and if they had their way that's all they'd eat is the treats okay and that's because that's their instinct is to eat the richest food in their environment and so this is the pleasure trap is the notion of when we make something more intense and richer than it was designed to be it becomes unbelievably compelling it traps the motivational system the ultimate example of this would be big-time drug addiction like think of heroin addiction that that essentially the pleasure rush from an opiate is unnaturally intense and it what what it what the feeling is is very similar to orgasm in other words when you have an orgasm that's an endorphin storm inside the brain and the use of a big opiate has a very similar effect on the nervous system is that that relaxed euphoria and so you can imagine that if you could get that you relaxed euphoria in ten times the concentration there could happen naturally through an orgasm you can see how unbelievably compelling that would be how incredibly addictive and unbelievably dangerous okay that is the story of the closure trap story the pleasure trap is the story of what we call supernormal stimulation and when we discuss the pleasure trap here and in my career were mostly talking about food so the modern food supply is a super normal stimulation it is not normal so a cheese pizza with pepperoni on it that is not a natural food for human there's no pepperoni pizza trees anywhere in nature you'll never find one okay and so the fact that that that is effectively like miniature heroin it isn't as destructive it isn't completely derail people's lives but it just nags you into a corner where you're doing something that is too rich the fuels too rich for the system and it eventually causes problems and the resultant the major result in influence is obesity and cardiovascular disease so these are the pleasure trap is the story of how it is that we get lulled into doing something that feels really right but in this case is actually counterproductive so that's the story the pleasure trap and pleasure traps always out there it's never going way all we can do is know that it's there and try to organize our lives against it as much as possible to stay out of it as much as we can correct well thank you so much I want to remind people that your website is called steam dynamics and you will get a link to it in the email that will go out and right there there is a button that allows you to get a online when you call it a consult consult I think with dr. Lisle and so that's you can do that and I highly recommend it thank you dr. Lisle for this very positive you know message that is hard to find and when we open the newspaper or watch the TV or talk to people thank you yeah it's it's a weird eighty-three we will get through this thank you very good gustavo thank you for having me goodbye everybody and thank to the class bye-bye you
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