To get a shareable link to a certain place in the audio,
hover your mouse over the relevent text,
right click, and "copy link address"
(mobile: long press & copy link address)
hello and welcome my name is Gustavo
tolosa
and I am a webinar producer and host and
I you may have seen me doing webinars
with a lot of plant-based doctors and
chefs and one of my favorite people to
interview and chat with of course is dr.
Lyle we all love human and really
respect him so today we're going to talk
a little bit about what we're all going
through which is this anxiety and stress
of the corona virus just in case the
some of you're new here I would like to
say a few words about dr. Lyle dr. Lyle
received his undergraduate education
from the University of California San
Diego he completed his PhD in clinical
psychology at the University of Virginia
where he was awarded the president's
fellowship and was a DuPont scholar he
was then appointed lecturer in
psychology at Stanford University and
worked on the research staff at the
Department of Veterans Affairs at the
National Center for post-traumatic
stress disorder in Palo Alto California
his research and clinical interests have
broadened to include health and wellness
self-esteem relationship satisfaction
the treatment of anxiety disorders and
depression and optimizing achievement
motivation in addition to his work with
steam dynamics he is currently the staff
psychology at both the True North health
center and the mcdougal wellness program
both located in Santa Rosa California
and of course he co-wrote a book that we
have all read the book is called the
pleasure trap and I hope that you will
get a copy of it and and start reading
it so without further ado I would like
to introduce dr. Lyle and thank you so
much for making the time I know you're
very busy to be with us today
how are you doing just great your stava
great to see you same here
so dr. Lyle let's talk a little bit
about this and then we have some
questions about the the stress the
mental stress that a lot of people are
feeling and anxiety I can't say that I'm
not feeling it because I also and I have
this Lisa running through my mind on all
the time did you wash your hands did you
put your gloves are you wearing your
mask did you put your shoes outside or
don't come in with etc and I just would
like for you to say a few words and then
we can chat and have some questions that
okay with you sure absolutely
I think that yeah this is an unusual
time the I think that that the greatest
generator of anxiety is uncertainty
uncertainty and fear about the downside
risks so this is the not not dissimilar
to if you're walking in the woods and
there were the evening and you hear a
twig snap your your first reaction is
predator so you're designed by nature to
have your mind reach for the very worst
case scenario and have an emotional
response on that on that inference that
this could be terrible and therefore we
have to be instantaneously ready so this
is essentially what happened to you know
an entire world with respect to this is
that this is a big twig snapping in the
woods and the the overwhelming
likelihood is that it's a squirrel
however there was a possibility that it
would say that it was an African lion
okay so this is the worst-case scenario
entrance now this is now March 21st I
think birthday is spring and I think
that that by this time the evidence is
starting to come in that this is not
nearly as bad and this isn't going to be
nearly as bad as that we feared but that
that's reasonable so right now what you
have is a the appropriate
a reaction which is in retrospect will
turn out to be a massive of a reaction
as governments around the world race to
try to make sure that we don't give up a
once once it essentially a one-time
opportunity to to impact the development
or the essentially the spread of an
epidemic and so they didn't have a
choice as far as I was concerned they so
all of these sort of draconian measures
that we're seeing around the world
including in the United States like
right now I sit in California viz to
lock down or whatever they call in other
words you're supposed to be at home not
out in the world doing anything unless
you have to and that that's not
unreasonable given what we knew or
essentially what we didn't know but we
suspect it could be possible a week or
two ago so it takes time for the
information to flow through the world's
databases and get communicated now as
today I I'm not nearly as concerned as I
was a week ago a week ago it looked like
we had for example percentages of death
from infection in China looking like
four or five percent we had the same
kind of thing happening in Italy also
looking like 5% or more it turns out
that these are vast over estimates as a
result of essentially that the people
that were being tested are not a
representative sample of the world that
gets in contact with this virus we now
have in Germany vast numbers of people
have been tested because they have very
sophisticated and a widespread testing
program that's been in place now for
enough days that we're getting a better
estimate as to how many people are
infected and how many people are likely
to die as a result of this infection
it's looking and the World Health
Organization currently has this estimate
posted online is between two and three
percent this would be terrifying
this retro and of course myself and
every other reasonable person in the
world looking at that we realize that
this could be a tidal wave of carnage of
essentially unprecedented proportions in
the modern times the it's not the
bubonic plague that wiped out half of
Europe but if it took two or three
percent of our citizenry in the world
that would be an unbelievable number the
however quickly the numbers look
different so pretty soon we had a cruise
ship or two that were infected we were
able to follow those infections and then
observe several 700 affected people I
think on the diamond princess I think
I'm remembering this correctly and it
turns out 1% of the people became
infected or 1% of people died
you know 700 people were infected out of
2,500 people so a pretty good sample
with 1%
South Korea also showing about 1%
fatality so this is also just looking
ominous so this was about the best or
most trusted data as if maybe a week ago
so this led to a great deal of action on
the parts of governments saying we have
to stop now and hard we don't have any
choice
and so they did and I'm essentially
proud of the world that human beings
talk to each other communicated
politicians but but partisan issues
aside as fast as they could and we have
acted with extraordinary cooperation and
speed on this sort of once-in-a-lifetime
threat remarkable however it now appears
through more extensive testing in
Germany and better data analysis that
the threat looks more like 0.3% and it
looks like 1% this is huge
so this is the break that every
epidemiologist in the world and every
every learning person that has been
staring at this problem was hoping for
we were hoping that
this would actually be essentially the
equivalent of their very bad flu and
that's what it looks like so you're
seeing that the people that are for whom
this is fatal are overwhelmingly elderly
people are really quite old so in the
80s is where the vast concentration of
this is and in the 70s and of those
people that are contracted virus in
their 70s for example the vast majority
of people will survive only maybe a
couple percent will die two or three
percent and those individuals that die a
large percentage of those will be
smokers and there will be people
otherwise who are quite unhealthy so in
Italy I believe that 99% of the people
that died so far in Italy all had very
serious other underlying conditions so
what we're seeing is exactly what we see
in the flu every year in the United
States we see the flu visit and we see
many millions of cases to the flu maybe
40 or 50 million cases we see 40 or 50
thousand people a year die every year
the people that die every year the flu
are almost exclusively although not
exclusively but they're almost
exclusively people that have that are
very are most elderly people and we are
seeing that are elderly people that are
already than this ill or or essentially
the most people so that is what this
looks like essentially it looks like a
stressor for our species that's going to
tip people that are already in serious
trouble it's going to tip a few
percentage of those people to their to
their last day it's a not a good way to
go
the virus is a 17-day infection for
those people so if grandma who is
already in trouble and has a lot of
health problems and it's essentially 83
years old and it's in the bottom 5% or
health of 83 year olds if she contracts
this virus she's
trouble and and instead of her living in
other six months she's going to live
another a couple weeks so this is not a
good thing and it is a very scary thing
however it doesn't look like the
calamity that that all of us were
fearing so this is going to take a while
to confirm what is that I'm reporting
here what I'm reporting here is the best
available evidence that I have as
someone very comfortable with
statistical analysis on the basis of my
academic training I feel confident that
this is more or less what this looks
like
so I'm breathing a sigh of relief I have
an 87 year old mother who I am
protecting carefully to try to reduce
her likelihood of getting this virus
however she's not anywhere near the
bottom 5% Isle of an 87 year old she's
safely in the mid range so we're on to
dying if she contracted the disease or
it's extremely small the so this is so
I'm I'm concerned but I'm not panicked
so the reason why people would be
essentially extraordinarily anxious and
very stressed it's going to be number
one to not know the numbers essentially
to not know what the facts are and the
media of course is is bowing to a rule
in media and and that is that if it
bleeds it leads
the most dramatic most scary thing that
can happen is exactly what's going to be
plastered on the front pages of the of
any internet site and of any radio
television show or or print media it has
to be that way they're in competition
with each other for eyeballs and
eyeballs or money and the most dramatic
scary thing is going to be the thing
that draws the most attention because
that's the nature of the species the
species must figure out what kind of
threat it's under and and what it must
do on your uncertainty and so we're
going to get blasted continuously for
the next several weeks with this in
order to essentially get your very
Horton's and all all-important economic
process of your eyeball moving to their
page so you're going to get inundated
with very scary information it's going
to try to dampen any positive
information that gets leaked or that you
happen to find so I have seen many
instances of the media of being
disingenuous in their reporting about
many things about this virus in order to
see to it that everybody's terrified
it's also true that many experts that
you will hear interviewed that would
seem to be incredible bigshot
epidemiologists at some bigshot in
university or with the CDC or the World
Health Organization these individuals
are are not unbiased this is their day
in the Sun this makes what their life's
work to be extremely important all of a
sudden so this is essentially their
Super Bowl and many of them have waited
their whole lives to be crowned MVP at
Super Bowl and this is the time to do it
and so they're not going to be
particularly reassuring and anybody that
is reassuring and and gives a
essentially very contrary message opens
themselves up to essentially PAC
criticism and so you're not going to see
this happen however I have been looking
for this individual so there are
extremely highbrow sophisticated people
that are looking at the numbers and
exactly the same way I'm looking at them
and are calming down in a relaxed
fashion realizing that it is entirely
plausible that when 2020 is over that
the death rate for the United States
will not have gone up at all that
essentially the people that will die at
this disease of which there may be 10 or
20 or 30 or 40 or 50 or even a hundred
thousand those will be likely to be
individuals who would have died this
ship there anyway and so that's
overwhelmingly likely who those people
are going to be so it's exceedingly
possible that when we look at the death
rate of the United States when it's all
said and done that 2020 will look
exactly like 2019 or if it looks a
little worse than 2021 will look a
little better in other words a very
small percentage of people that are
elderly and ill will have essentially
given up these few months of their life
early so instead of dying in two in
early 2021 they died in late 2020 now
this seems very callous and uncaring
I'm not callous uncaring I'm extremely
concerned I don't see how I could be
very wrong based on the numbers that
we're getting in from around the world
and careful study of conditions that are
representative of what we're all going
to face as opposed to one representative
which is what's being reported now it is
scary
it's nasty if we had you know a new flu
strain that operated independently of
the one that we have now that wipes out
40,000 people a year and we had another
40,000 people then we would need to
seeing the same thing happen in other
words we would have elderly and sick
people and vulnerable people a few more
of them would die this year as a result
of that and it would truncate their
lives some some modest degree that's
what this is okay this is essentially
it's not a flu it's it's own thing but
it is essentially a very similar process
it's a respiratory virus and it's going
to essentially work very similarly it's
worse than the flu so it's going to
hasten this up or it's going to grab a
few more of your most vulnerable 1% is
what's happening so if you are not one
of those most of all number one percent
if you're walking around and chewing gum
and walking and and not in the nursing
home and if you are not a career
long-term smoker then your odds of
perishing from this are effectively zero
yeah
in cases where that's been
not true for example apparently some
young man died at this that was
otherwise looked and healthy it turned
out he added an undiagnosed leukemia so
this sort of thing is going to be found
it is going to be people that are
younger that seemingly don't have a
vulnerability that will lose their lives
to this and they may have lost
considerably more life as a result of
this tragedy visiting so what would I
tell you not a good thing
proud of the world's governments and
communication systems and
epidemiologists and doctors and
researchers to jump on this thing and
understand that they did not know what
the parameters were and that we had no
choice other than to responsibly
overreact just as you would is if a
loved one was at a Mexican restaurant
and just ate something with a lot of hot
sauce in it and then started clutching
their chest and having a hard time
breathing the white thing to do is to
call them 911 even though the odds are
pretty high that it's not a heart attack
we don't know so in in grave danger
always overreact okay don't sit on 911
if your grandmother just took a spill
and she's in the middle of the floor and
she looks like she's in trouble don't
wait around for three minutes to find
out get on the phone immediately that's
what the world has now done with this
virus which is exactly what they should
have done do we have a revisiting of the
bubonic plague are millions going to die
as a result of this is this going to be
a unspeakable tragedy no it's not it's
going to turn out that this is a rough
wave of trouble it's going to visit our
most vulnerable and people that that
that don't have a lot of bandwidth left
in their lives and it's going to push
them early okay that's not good and
that's a sad thing and it's worth trying
to do what we can to mitigate that but
it is not what it is that we must here
we feared that this could have been
something that could take out anybody
and that it could in fact visit several
million Americans if it had been a 3%
like they were hearing or a two to three
which is now being reported by the World
Health Organization these are very
misleading numbers based on what we now
know that would mean nine or ten million
Americans which would be worse than any
World War we interface okay that's not
what this is this is essentially a nasty
nasty blip
if we keep that in mind wash your hands
be pretty nice but otherwise get ready
to resume normal life because as this
data becomes clearer and more evident to
the powers that be over the next couple
of weeks which in the next two weeks it
will become exceedingly evident as more
and more data comes in from around the
world from from better and better
sources we'll find out that it's not 1
percent that it's 0.3 or so maybe 0.4
maybe point 2 but it's down in those
ranges the normal annual flu is 0.1 so
this this means that as this evidence
comes in the panic among the learn it
that understand is going to subside
things considerably the politicians will
now then know that they don't have to do
this it's not required it's not a
responsibility requirement to go through
the draconian measures that we are now
and as this finally starts to become
evident this is going to we're going to
have a return to normalcy so that I
can't give you an exact timeline on that
but it's coming and it's going to come
pre soon at least on wine I know this
Davo is because the the incubation
period from beginning to end to death is
17 days and we now have hundreds of
thousands of people that have been have
tested with many many positive tests
around the world now now we're going to
be able to see in the next 17 days a
tremendous amount of people that are now
well documented and we're gonna
what the real base rates are or or this
process that were to find out that
they're not anywhere near to worst case
scenario humanity just stepped on a twig
in the dark and it's snapped or they
didn't step on it they heard a twig snap
it turned out it was a big animal but it
wasn't a big predator the scary as hell
and you know it it gave us a you know a
bad few minutes that we'll catch our
breaths and we'll be okay well it's nice
to hear a reassuring message among all
this total madness
hi and of course I'm just wondering dr.
Lisle well first of all you might be
highly criticized because you're telling
us the opposite that we're hearing but
these numbers are you talking about well
do you think that it will become
available in the near future like this
said today it isn't all you have to do
is you look at you look run from Germany
so Germany has now tested as of
yesterday over twenty thousand we have
twenty thousand cases that have that
have grouped themselves to be possible
and this is a result of having to test a
huge number of people because most
people don't have virus so the remember
that when you're in Italy or you're in
China where you're in the United States
and you've done very little testing the
only people you're testing or the sick
people so it's no surprise dat five
percent of them died but if we go out
and test half a million people
then then now we find out okay well now
that we've got twenty thousand out of
half a million have been identified now
we can have a very better look at these
twenty thousand people because we've got
a huge number now and they're not a
bunch of sick people that we've met
selected to see oh my god you're really
ill narraboth let's see whether or not
you got the coronavirus oh my god you've
got it
instead we go and test 500 people of
which two or three are sick when we
they're not two or three or sick but
seventeen nor have the virus and now we
see that oh my god you didn't even know
you have the virus okay so now we're
going to sit back and watch for 17 days
whether you're dead and the answer is
mMmmm you're not turns out it wasn't
that big a deal so this is what Germany
has found so Germany now is showing
about 0.3 death rate in other words
about 80 people out of 20,000 something
like that whatever it is so there it's
the it's about 0.3 now that is very I
mean it's worse everybody is saying is
this worse than the flu is true that is
correct I mean all the evidence
indicates that this is worse than the
float it's bad okay so we're not denying
I'm not denying that and nobody would be
the insane to deny that but what it
looks like is a very nasty flu it
doesn't look like a you know an
unprecedented modern pandemic that is
ten times worse than the flu or is the
World Health Organization incredibly you
know what I mean I I don't know why that
they wouldn't move a little quicker to
give us a little bit better thing like
okay it could be as bad as 2% because we
look at national averages we average
Italy in there but we already know that
the Italy data is unbelievably biased we
already know these are elderly people
very old very sick you can't use that
data that's like going into a cancer
ward in the in the United States and
saying well how many people are going to
die this year and then then watching and
then publishing that data well gee where
I was 42 percent of the people body it's
like that's not representative of the
United States and so this is base
statistics which is that you have to
collect representative samples in order
to generalize the results now fairly and
reasonably that we didn't have
representative samples two weeks ago so
if you didn't have representative
samples and you have to act now
you can't wait for the representative
samples this is so the world did exactly
the right thing which is to push the
panic button when it looks like you
could be in serious trouble and you only
have one chance to push it that is
exactly the right thing to do but now
we're two weeks later with twenty
thousand confirmed cases in Germany and
you know 0.3 of the people die that's
what we've got we've got a cruise ship
where 1% of the people died but when you
adjust for their ages a make appropriate
statistical adjustment the number looks
like 0.5 so now it's like okay that's
what and that's it worst
apparently so the crease date is 0.5 the
much better German data now looking at
700 cases but looking at 20,000 cases
says 0.3 ok what are we going to find
we're gonna find that this is a bad
thing clearly and we're gonna find that
it's going to visit the lives of very
vulnerable people as does the flu or any
other problem that comes to their lives
it's going to be a the thing that tips
them over ok so very many elderly people
get some kind of pneumonia and they die
from it they can get a cold and die from
it
so this thing is going to push a lot of
people it's going to be the straw that
breaks the camel's back for for many
vulnerable people however it is not
going to visit the normal population in
a way that's going to be catastrophic at
all and so that that is the truth is
best that I can tell it and I wouldn't
be saying it if I wasn't staring at the
numbers and you know I've got a
calculator on my
desk and I've got a brain and I can see
what the truth is saying you have a lot
of experience in statistics which is
yeah yes most don't and so it looks very
scary where do where are these numbers
available like are they available to
regular people happy these are mine if
you if you look up Germany Germany
coronavirus and you'll see the data and
so if you read about it you'll see that
the Germans have by far them a
sophisticated widespread testing program
South Korea is being lauded for theirs
but it's behind the Germans and so you
know we're not Germans to be methodical
concerned like you said but not panicked
because the concern be proven
particularly if you have elderly people
about the notion that we should all feel
a tremendous responsibility to not be
passing this virus around because it
would create waves of disaster is
mistaken okay so that it's fine that we
did what we did flattening the curb etc
reducing the spread this is all this is
all legitimate but that I'm not seeing
given the lethality of this I'm not
seeing a catastrophic health crisis at
all I'm just seeing a scared species
looking at trouble and overreacting as
they should and certain places are going
to find out that if they didn't flatten
the curve and they don't have adequate
facilities their doctors are going to
face some difficult triage choices like
in Italy so there's going to be you know
that's not good the United States is
massively better prepared
Germany is well prepared there's other
countries that aren't as well prepared
to work I don't see a big you know isn't
that I need to be egocentric about this
I mean it's going to be I should care in
principle about people in Italy as much
I do to people in the United States and
in principle idea but the the people
that are personally closest to me are in
the United States and so I know that me
and myself and my own are well protected
by a healthcare system who is going to
be up to this task if it turns out that
I need it I need it one thing that I
wanted to get your opinion on is the
damage of the financial heart economy
because there this is it is crazy and
restaurants and many many businesses
that are basically going to have to
close the doors forever yeah yeah I
think that's why there's going to be a
lot of pressure in the next couple of
weeks as you remember you've got you've
got a couple of hundred thousand people
tested and in South Korea and a couple
hundred thousand more people tested in
Germany that we're watching and so in in
Germany now with 20,000 infections as of
today you're in the next 17 days we're
going to get an extremely good number
about what the real death rate is and it
won't be disputable yes sir right now
it's like well if it leads to five
percent Germany six point three percent
boy you know who we gonna believe well I
think I know who to believe
and so but but that's going to be
unequivocal within two weeks so in two
weeks once the parameters of this are
better known and I should say you know
and III want it I want to have a wild
card in this discussion that I can't
speak definitively all I can tell you is
what the evidence is screaming to me so
I expect to be greatly reassured in the
next ten days as we now watch a
significant percentage of those 20,000
cases aged their way into this problem
those 20,000 people are not in trouble
they don't know they have two critical
cases out of 20,000 right now and so
this is this is telling you what it
looks like as of today so I think that
we're going to find that in the next
couple weeks we're going to see
these numbers are going to coalesce
around something you know probably
considerably below point five which is
massively less than everybody is fearing
and as a result it's going to be clear
that and it's also going to get very
clear about who it is that's dining okay
so once we see that it's now going to be
more of an issue of hey we have to be
careful in and around older vulnerable
people to to shield them from infection
but that doesn't mean the rest of us
can't go out and dance that's a whole
different issue and so other things have
been parameters that have been greatly
feared is that people can be carrying
the virus and spreading it without being
symptomatic I believe that does
theoretically always the case for
example with colds flu anything else in
the Sun but I think that we also know
that in the vast majority of these kinds
of diseases that although that's true
that is not the vast majority of the
transmission so as a result as we get a
handle on that in the next couple of
weeks we're going to find out that it's
not that important that we'd be
sequestered and six feet away from
everybody and everything else what it
what's important is if you're sick or
you're feeling a little bit ill don't go
visit your grandmother or nursing home
okay which was always a smart move but
now it's going to be particularly
emphasized so I think that the world is
going to essentially get their hands
around these parameters I think there's
going to be a great deal of superstition
and fear that will last for months but I
think the powers that be and the real
brands will know what the truth is quite
definitively within 14 days and I think
you're going to start to see a real
action relaxation it's going to going to
be it's going to be a responsible
process to have to walk back our panic
and when that happens I think these
businesses are going to survive mostly
okay and I think things are going to
spring back and things are going to be
looking very normal
relatively soon if life doesn't look
normal
bye
the middle of June all these I'll be
pretty surprised I think what's up so I
mean we could we could speculate that is
going to be a few weeks but not 15
months not any months I don't think it's
going to be a few months I think the
evidence should be too clear to
essentially everybody within 30 days
that bad nasty thing but not the tiger
we thought it was right that and that's
what I think and I think that that
everything will have to start
normalizing after that and I think life
by I think by the fourth of July I think
what things going to be looking pretty
good
there'll be many sad stories you know
there there'll be an identifiable cause
of a lot of people's death that will be
new and that will be you know there's
gonna there's going to be a lot of
mourning for a lot of people lost but
it's it's not going to be what we are
care yeah well I think you don't rely on
you you are still doing online sessions
are you from your website people can get
you that if they wish
absolutely and I have a new colleague
dr. Jen hawk but I reduced your people
to is just terrific so if you yeah if
you want a little nicer version you want
to get nicer than you came in in touch
and also we have a we have we have some
new materials we're going to be putting
up on our website and steam dynamics
that people might find interesting so
anyway things for things are going good
things are moving forward your table
well we will put it here on the screen
the website is teamdynamix is it Dodd or
or calm yes sir
dynamics that will put it here on the
screen and you one more time for giving
us this precious minutes here and we are
sharing in us that this is not the end
of the world
right
very good and that sometime in the near
future we can resume our normal life you
bet you that thank you very much that
rely on wills I see fantastic thanks for
having me I think everybody for joining
us good man
you
Back to the top🏃 👖
