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right good evening everybody it's Nate G
here along with dr. Doug Lyall and dr.
Jen hawk with the beat your genes
podcast dr. Lyle dr. Hawk it's been
exactly one week since last week well
it's kind of redundant but yes exactly
one week since since our last show with
the corona virus so today we are going
to be doing the corona virus part two
there have been a lot of questions a lot
of emails between all three of us people
have been emailing us so we're just
going to go from that further for that
how you guys doing this evening good how
are you you know it's interesting
because last week we had the show and I
was a little bit more relieved yeah but
just you know my personality is such
that you know I the the H CNC and me was
just I mean I was having a tough time
not staring at the news just reading
every little bit and every every little
news about California going on lockdown
just just put my worst case scenarios
and overdrive mm-hmm and then something
interesting happened then I read your
article your recent article doctor Hawk
and I watched dr. Lau's recent video I
know I'm a Star Wars fan so I was
affectionately titled a new hope and hmm
and all of a sudden my nervous system
started to calm down so I'm still a
little bit glued to the news no but this
show let's let's talk a little bit more
about it so dr. well dr. Hawk fire when
ready let's talk about corona virus yeah
go ahead Jen we're inundated with corona
virus what are what are some of your
thoughts and then I'm happy to to spin
for a while to whenever we were whenever
we're ready yeah well we could go lots
of different directions with this mean
people I think a lot of people are
having similar experiences to what
Nate's talking about where they're
they're glued to the news they're in a
high high alert state and they're just
having a having a really hard time and
you know I am engaging with this and
I've got I've got pretty much the ideal
personality for for dealing with a
situation like this I'm fairly
introverted you know I'm slightly
extroverted when I take the test but I
really am quite introverted in practice
I'm just barely over the average line
very emotionally stable you know quite
agreeable the only thing that's really
being challenged personality-wise by the
current situation is openness but you
know there's the that is actually
helpful in such a situation because
openness lends itself to some optimism
around everything and so I kind of have
been thinking about personality a lot in
the context of going through a going
through a collective moment and and
watching how that moment affects
different people differently and how
they're coping with it and looking at my
own personality and my own agitation and
my own you know I have a similar similar
experience to some degree that you're
describing where I I kind of have my ups
and downs with it where I'll reimburse
and then if I spend a little too much
time reading things that are a little
too scary and worst case scenarios it's
it's a that is all extremely salient to
the stone-age brain you know it's for
reasons that I I wrote about in the
newsletter that you referred to and we
can talk about more but you know bad bad
news has more Stone Age significance
than good news and we are in we're
completely immersed in this in this
informational matrix where we are
completely surrounded by brand-new
information all the time and it's all
very scary and so I think people
everywhere on the personality spectrum
even if you're very introverted and very
stable you're having some turbulence
associated with this and it's still
uncertain enough in terms of you know we
can we can run models and we can look at
the data that we have available and all
of that is reasonably reassuring like we
talked about extensively last week and
and I think dr. Lyle and I still believe
looking at the best available data but
it's it's not it's not a it's not a no
big deal situation it it's obviously
it's a very big deal and people are
being affected in really direct ways and
lives are being upended and businesses
are being profoundly disrupted and
nobody can really project them
themselves in into the future in any
sort of meaningful way to figure out
where it is
but they they themselves are going to
stand relative to all of this in the
next couple of months and that's a very
destabilizing psychological experience
for anybody to have and particularly if
you do have any instability in your
nervous system or if you are more on the
extroverted side or you just you just
have any kind of personality
characteristic that makes you more more
susceptible to the to the turbulence of
the moment so I have just been telling
people you know regardless of what what
their specific situation is that this
this is as uncertain as it gets right
now this is you know we are sort of in
you know the the absolute heart of
trying to figure out what this is going
to look like and in in some ways even if
even if we do descend into were scary
worst case scenario Vil which I don't
think we will but even if we do that
brings certainty uncertainty allows us
to weave a more finely calibrated
cost-benefit analysis relative to the
problem and I think what's really what
people are really struggling with is is
just the the uncertainty of being able
to to locate that cost-benefit analysis
and constantly updating it and
constantly running new new parameter
estimates to to secure their position in
space and time and that's exhausting and
difficult and people just need to have a
lot of patience and compassion for
themselves just in the in the heart of
this moment which is not going to last
forever it's wonderful doctor dr. Hawk
thank you baggles
dr. Lyle yeah well say you're the it's
actually it's a it's unfortunate that
this is you know this big health scare
and that it's scary because for its it's
clear to me where I really where my
ideal place in the world was I knew it
was in engineering but now I really know
where it was which was in epidemiology
yeah yes but I found your colleague
there's there's nothing more really
interesting to me than numbers
stats well women are more interesting
and even then your anchormen numbers
yeah but but yeah so this is a this is a
giant fascinating math problem and it's
been interesting for me too to look at
the the thinking that comes in from all
over the place
and and I found some people that that I
thought are obviously they're
exceptionally smart and that they've
thought deeply about the problems and
I've learned you know from from their
analyses and the and I sort of percolate
that together and anybody that is that
knows a space like this knows that you
have to do some equivocating because
you're not sure what the parameters are
and their parameters are numbers keep
coming in and you as as Jen's talking
about your parameters change and you're
trying to get a grip on this because
we're talking about a life and death
thing so I guess another place for me to
have been would have been in the stock
market which is also an entertaining
place these days
but again numbers parameters estimations
mathematical models this is all quite
interesting and it shows me something
that I already knew which is the
extraordinary importance of statistics
in in trying to understand the world
around us the the stats now some things
have obviously we know more now than we
knew we week ago but we're still under a
lot of uncertainty I think that I think
it's it's looking like this thing is
certainly not the the horror that that
it looked like it might have been you
know three or four weeks ago still if
you look at closed cases worldwide like
fifteen percent of the people have died
and the the World Health Organization is
still going
post the amount of cases versus the
amount of deaths and it's still gonna
look horrendous it's gonna look over to
or you know two or three percent
something like that I think that there's
enough evidence creeping in that is
going to indicate that this thing is
going to be probably somewhere in the
neighborhood of around half a percent
may be as high as a percent probably not
but let me explain for people a few
problems with the data that we have now
well incidentally there is something
coming that you want to be mentally
prepared for so I'll talk about a
variety of sort of mathematical
perspectives why the perspective and I
interrupt you really surely before you
before you go on the date no I'm just
kidding ready for a wall Nathan really I
just wanted to ask if if you could tell
us where this data where you're getting
this data cuz is it the World Health
Organization I mean when I was at first
looking for the data I was just Google
you know what's the death rate but right
now I'm assuming some other people do
that as well so where where are you
getting this there's a website called
world ohmmeter and that gives you the
fastest changes in the data all over the
world so it gives you every country
breaks it down by country one of the
things I wish that it did which it
doesn't do is tell us the age of death
of the individuals that have died that
would be extremely I think reassuring to
all kinds of people to see that you know
we've got we've got evidence apparently
from numerous sources that that
obviously all of the data indicates that
people over 80 or you know quite a bit
more at risk than people that are 70 to
80 and people that are 7 or E to 80 or
much greater risk than that are people
or 60 to 70 etc all on down the food
chain the by the time you get to people
40 and under the risk is exceedingly
small 40 to 50 it's very very small but
it is it's a tick higher but people from
50 to 60 it's
it's very low but it's but it's there
it's on it's on the radar it's 60 to 70
quite low when you start to hitting 70
the the rates start to get you know
scary to the point where if you're I
think it's probably looking and is
somewhere in the range of four percent
three percent four percent of people who
have are infected if they're in 70 to 80
so that would be if you think about that
the average age of that population is
somewhere around 75 so a little bit less
than that probably just because that
it's not a it's not a straight bell
curve with 75 and then a bell curve
around 75 there's a little there's a few
more there's more people in the world
that lived 70 to 75 and lip from 75 to
80 but it's probably 74 so the if the
average person in that cohort is 74 if
they're a nonsmoker their their odds
might be might be three ish percent if
they're a smoker their odds might be
five or six percent so that's what those
numbers look like overall in total the
numbers might be around for something
like that so that's what that means so
pretty scary thing but but this is going
to wind up being from 70 and up with
average ages in the 70 to 80 cohort the
average age is going to be late 70s
obviously if you include all those
people so so probably an average age of
a wider nose 77 altogether those people
are experiencing a pretty pretty high
rate of risk five six percent something
like that with smokers
disproportionately high in that range so
the but that's that's who this virus is
overwhelmingly getting that doesn't mean
that that nobody else is at no risk
obviously but that's that's the lion's
share of who's under threat here which
is essentially the same the same
individuals in principle that are under
the threat from the flu which
incidentally takes
least somewhere thirty forty or fifty
thousand Americans here and six or seven
hundred thousand cases here worldwide so
the so to date I think we have seven or
eight hundred Americans who died of this
so keep in mind we've probably had
fifteen or twenty thousand deaths
maybe ten or fifteen thousand deaths so
far this year from the flu so so far
it's what this is it's a tremendous
threat and it's going to hit us but it
hasn't really hit us yet so when you see
the numbers in big red letters that
shows 777 Americans have died
keep in mind what an extraordinary small
number this that is and against the
backdrop of 330 million people so so far
I mean it's these are fascinating and
important numbers to watch but
statistically this is being dwarfed by
the flu to date by prep more than a
factor of 10 so essentially this would
be we would not be able to detect to
date the difference in a flu season if
we didn't know the difference between
this and the flu and a flu particularly
that the amount of cases where people
were in trouble and dying really
wouldn't look any different
the it would be a minor blip it would be
a tiny bit 10 percent worst flu season
so let's keep in mind that that's where
we are right the second but everybody
with a brain understands that that's not
where we're going so where are we been
up to now with respect to this has been
sort of like if you're whitewater
rafting so if you're whitewater rafting
you know you know that you're going to
hit some Rapids and it's going to get
scary and so right now even though
people are terrified the truth is is
that the the death rates up to now have
been big really nothing to speak of that
doesn't mean that you know hopefully
everybody understands what that means
every one of these things is a sad
situation but statistically this is
nothing this is now we've got 330
million people in the country we've
talking about six or seven hundred
deaths or so we're talking about one in
five hundred thousand Americans has died
of this disease so far I say just keep
that in mind
one in 500,000 so the with with the flu
being ten times that much it's been it's
1 in 50,000 so now what we're going to
do is we're gonna realize okay well
what's the big fuss about if up to now
it's 1 in 500,000 and the reason is is
we've got an infection that we can track
a death rate that is you know
non-trivial it's multiple times with the
flu is and so as a result we know we're
gonna get hit and it's coming okay and
it's coming here you know we're gonna
learn a lot about what the real
parameters look like here in the next 30
days but one thing is for sure and that
is to prepare yourself for the media
onslaught when this goes from you know
750 cases very quickly to a couple of
thousand cases very quickly to five
thousand cases pretty quickly to ten
thousand cases and then to 20 and when
you see that it would be easy to
essentially be intimidated and feel like
things are completely out of control but
things are not completely out of control
at that point the corona virus will have
caught the flu essentially is what will
have happened the the numbers will be
similar and keep something else in mind
that if when you hit twenty thousand
cases which I believe will hit in April
that will mean that the corona dot that
will be essentially net now we're
talking about a different level of
numbers now it's you know one in 16,000
people will have died and this country
from that disease now remember that one
at eighty people will die this year just
in general so essentially this will will
have added a factor of
one in 200 to the death rate for the
year so this is now still even though it
seems like a lot of people and it's
going to be scary as hell looking at
those numbers it's really still not
anything that's out of control what
happens next well what will be what was
important okay so what we don't know all
of the work that everybody's done around
this country to try to flatten this
curve out to try to essentially
attenuate this process so that maybe we
can also get a big boost from what's
going to happen you know maybe with
summer weather helping out this thing
could calm down and our efforts might
really pay off so we don't know what
it's going to look like yet we also
however will know probably within three
or four weeks we'll actually know what
the death rate probably is there is to
the best of my knowledge there is one
place that is is the only place that is
actually collecting the data that's
going to give us the best estimates
there's estimates have come from a
couple of different sources that are
interesting and important one of them is
the Diamond Princess that had about 700
and some people infected ten of those
people have now died I knew that eight
the first eight were 70 and over the
last two I don't know about I haven't
heard their reports on those so once
again we are looking at something that
in that case now looks like a percent
and a half but remember the the people
that are that are being impacted are all
these elderly people so it's looking
like the same three or four percent of
the age average of 75 or so that we
already expected so there's nothing
spectacular happening on that boat that
the it looks different than what you're
seeing elsewhere the the other couple of
databases that I'm watching one of them
is Germany because German Germany is has
tested a great many people and they've
been testing a great many people for a
while so what we're watching is we're
watching the
deaths against the amount of total cases
that was looking like about 0.3 or so a
week ago that now death rate looks more
like 0.5 so that's ominous and
disturbing so it looks but it's still
not the greatest data just because it's
not actually systematic testing of the
whole population so it's but it's
getting more and more representative as
the numbers of tests and the number of
cases gets larger and larger so it could
be that we're converging on something
north of half a percent who knows we're
not we're not sure yet the the I believe
that the best data in the world is going
to come out of Iceland the reason is I
believe Iceland is the only place that
is actually running essentially random
testing it's they're testing everybody
so as a they're a small enough place and
they're isolated a place that we may get
a really good look at this because there
are as many sources of evidence or
indicating that an awful lot of people
are out there that are positive for the
virus that have no symptoms at all and
never have any symptoms so this is we're
hoping that this is the case in Germany
and that the German net has not been
quite wide enough and that 0.5 may be
the upper limit of what we see and then
it starts to recede when we get larger
and larger amounts of people tested in
other words I think it's somewhat
statistically possible that the people
that are doing their tests are more
likely than the average bear to have the
virus because they may have some
symptoms even with large amounts of
testing there could easily be a bias in
there that could influence the data that
we eventually observe in Iceland right
now it's too early to tell so we don't
we've got about 6 or 700 cases we have a
couple of deaths so we've got a number
of people in critical condition not a
lot but some it could easily be enough
of those people could could die or the
existing other case
as could deteriorate such that we could
we could wind up with something that we
don't know what it could look like right
now it's not over 0.5 right now it's in
the in the beneath there but we it's
it's too early to tell
so given that the u.s. rate again the
u.s. is not has not have been a big
tester so a great number of the US tests
have gone to people who are ill or have
symptoms the u.s. rate is currently one
about 1.2 percent it's been dropping
I've been watching those numbers drop
again non-representative samples it's
hard to tell what it looks like but
here's what it doesn't look like it
doesn't look like the two to three
percent that that would have been you
know and would be an incredible calamity
so two or three percent would would put
you know in the US population will put
seven or eight million people at risk
the that that would be a staggering wave
we are still we still have the
possibility that that's how many people
would be at risk if the virus was so
very like that yet it not only killed
that number of people but it was also
super communicable and everybody got the
virus which is unlikely what most
epidemiologists I've listened to don't
think that that's a remote possibility
the so when we start we start looking at
things like the flu we're starting to
look at things that might have you could
have 50 60 million cases in the United
States of this thing potentially if you
did and you have you know half a percent
then half a percent would be 300,000
cases that would add you know and we
know who they would be so we we know
that this is going to be heavily loaded
in our elderly population remember that
was so now I want to do something else
so now that we sort of look at these
numbers and we're preparing ourselves
for the Whitewater that you're about to
get in April so it's it's coming you're
gonna get some scary news
gonna have some big numbers up there
and when you see 20 25,000 Americans
have died of this and hospitals are are
you know working overtime remember that
this is not actually unexpected that
this is this is the fear and they're the
reasons why we have done all the things
that we've done and and we're still you
know 20,000 people remember is a an
exceedingly small number of people it's
1 in 16,000 and remember when an 80 of
people will die this year ok so that's
so we are that 1 in 16,000 of those
people is plucking off some of the 1 out
of 80 that were headed that direction
this year certainly so the what does
this all mean when we get away from the
big numbers and the scary news shows and
let's back up and try to figure out what
it means for us the thing that I read in
the last few days was a was again a calm
reassuring intelligent report of a Nobel
Prize winning chemist at Stanford
University I don't know his name Jen may
have written it down did you did you
write his name down somewhere I did just
a second here it's Michael love it isn't
that given that LA Times yeah we are
them we posted we posted links just for
people who are listening there's a
keeping a sort of collection of useful
links for articles that we talk about
that I have linked from my Instagram
page and also from my Facebook page but
I can send it to Nate so he can post it
on the beat your genes page as well it's
just a little link link tree list of
articles and resources and things that
we've been referencing and that we would
recommend and that article is a LA Times
article that Doug is talking about and
it's on that list yeah so this this
character obviously plenty of brains
it's a it's almost artistically
ridiculous because apparently what
did was he looked at the math in
February and he his his report was
published I guess in the China and major
China newspaper that based on early data
he said you're gonna have eighty
thousand infections in about thirty to
thirty two hundred and fifty people are
going to die by X such a date when that
day came there was about eighty thousand
three hundred cases or something like
this and there was three thousand two
hundred and forty five deaths so he was
only within five okay so when I hear
something like this that wasn't done
post hoc in fact he was published early
and the guy said this is what's gonna
happen and then that's exactly what
happened you get my attention
so his analysis of the situation is look
this is going to be unpleasant a lot of
people are going to die of this but
here's the way to think about it
when it comes to you because that's
really in the end it's it's about the
people that are important to you and
it's about yourself it's like what does
this mean for me this was his way of
calculating the numbers for your
personal risk and I thought it was very
interesting what he said is I think I'm
getting this right chance you correct me
that that you're if you get the virus
your personal risk of death doubled for
the next two months what it otherwise
was going to be okay so in other words
if you are 45 years old and healthy your
risk of dying in the next 60 days is
infinitesimally small but that that's
that that it's double the risk that
sounds very scary in the way that those
those relative numbers always sound
scary without people who have a sense of
the ABS what that absolute data is your
risk of dying and the next month is very
very very low if you're in that low risk
group so double double almost zero is
still almost zero so that's what that's
we'll miss when they when they hear that
sort of phrase like oh my god it doubles
my risk of dying and that does sound
there yes Marian taps into like like a
lot of adrenaline but when you actually
like what does that mean for you it does
not mean that you are that meaningfully
more statistically likely to to be taken
out by those things so that's just very
important for people to understand right
it sounds awfully familiar with a
lecture I heard either you or dr.
Goldhamer or somebody in the plant-based
world say and they looked at a study of
cholesterol advertisements cholesterol
medication advertisements where they say
it will lower your cholesterol by you
know 50% and it went end up going from 3
to 2 yeah relative and absolute
differences that's a huge big marketing
trick and and very confusing to people
right but this is this is really an
interesting way to look at it so let's
suppose you are 75 years old and let's
suppose you're in not very good health
and so if we if we did a Northwestern
Mutual Life you know we had a doctor
come and take every parameter on you and
they would say you know what you're
you're probably not going to make it
more than three years based on all these
numbers and so you're kind of in the
bottom end of the curve of 75 year olds
because the average 75 year old probably
has you know seven or eight year life
expectancy so we'd have to look that up
on a table but that's probably the case
so let's suppose well let's suppose
you're an average 75 year old if we look
this up on a social security database
table we would find that the average 75
year old probably has let's let's guess
that it's 8 years it's not a bad guess
so all other things being equal
we're just taking somebody smack in the
middle of the bell curve not doing
anything particular stood not doing
anything smart this is just a got 50
percentile written on their forehead so
that means they're going there they're
expected to live a hundred months
basically so they're their odds of of
dying in the next month are very small
so let's suppose
that you know that that's actually so
the life expectancy is is eight years
they could live 12 but they could live
for they could live 16 but they could
live none so as a result the average is
eight years so in principle we would
look at this and say okay well it's
about a hundred months to go of this
life and then the person's going to pass
away so there's you know we're gonna
call this a percent a month so there's
sort of one one chance in 100 that
you're gonna pass away but now you
caught the coronavirus so in the next
month the next two months your odds of
dying would have been 2% collectively
adding one in one but now instead it's
going to be four okay so that's what
it's going to be so that's what this
this epidemiologist or caste was trying
to explain so this is why the numbers
look the way they do remember not a lot
of 55 year-olds died just up and die in
the next two months not a lot of forty
six year olds up and die in the next two
months it's just not how it works but a
lot of 77 year-olds up and die in the
next two months
in fact one or two percent of them okay
in the next two months four or five
seven eight 12 percent of them are gonna
will die this next year okay so you know
at five or ten percent a year in the
next collectively over the next ten
years they're very likely if you're 77
your life expectancies probably six
seven eight years okay so you're your
chance to die in any individual month as
you get into your later years it's like
1% like this that's what you're staring
at now there's a 99% chance you're gonna
survive the next month but there's a 1%
chance you want now I want you to think
about the people that are very ill so
you're not an average 77 year old you're
a sick one so what are your odds well
your odds are the
she might only reasonably expected to
live the next four years okay so you're
not in as good a shape as your brother
Harry who took care of a little better
care of himself
so now you've got about 50 months left
not a hundred so as a result your odds
are two percent a month so over the next
two months your odds are about four
percent whereas if you catch the
coronavirus it's 8% there's the big hit
so this is exactly the kind of numbers
that we're seeing from the coronavirus
that's why it's loaded the way it is if
you're 62 your odds of dying in the next
month are are not 1%
they're probably two-tenths of a percent
okay so over the next two months it's
probably four tenths of a percent and so
if you get the Kuran virus it's probably
eight tenths of a percent and that's the
kind of numbers that we're gonna see so
from your standpoint form anybody that's
listening the way to gauge this I had a
friend of mine who is really upset and
worried about her daughter who was
taking her granddaughter into a store
it's just all upset about this and just
loves that grandchild so much and
grandchild is about a six-year-old girl
and I said the odds are effectively zero
that I don't know that there's been a
case in the world of a person under 10 I
don't think there has has been so the
you know is is it possible and are we
gonna get one well if we if this virus
worldwide manages to match the flu and
has a you know and 650,000 people died
of this virus including you know thirty
or forty thousand Americans if it
matches the flu this year then
undoubtedly we will see a few cases of
very young people but statistically this
is exceedingly small they're they're
more likely to die in an auto accident
so this is this is what we're looking at
the numbers are gonna get ominous but
curiously enough you know
when when the numbers when we're looking
at the impact on you and this thing goes
to 20,000 in the next month remember
it's 1 in 16,000 people it's nobody that
you know it may be somebody you've heard
of or a celebrity or something like that
but 16,000 people
I don't know 16,000 people so the odds
of this getting hitting close to home
are very low and so our job is is what
it always is as it would be with the
flow if you were sick with the flu you
know don't go visit your grandmother be
careful be respectful be responsible the
new term of the of life is social
distancing which you know I didn't know
what they were gonna call it that's kind
of creative and intelligent now we all
know what that means
and so you know we were smart about this
hopefully we flatten the curve the big
thing that we were after here I think
that we're going to achieve just went to
some degree of success is not that we're
going to blunt and stop this thing from
taking a lot of lives
early in other words a few months early
maybe a year or two early in some cases
but what we're going to be able to do is
hopefully through all of this collective
action make it so that we don't have
unnecessary deaths that human beings
could have prevented by by more optimal
use of our medical facilities so that's
that's what we're trying to do and now
we brace for the Whitewater
because if we're going to get it
absolutely fascinating then this brings
me to another question for you dr. Lau
and dr. Hawk because dr. Hawk just
recently wrote an article called when
bad news is good news yes and and so I
mean that the general question is is
rick brilliant by the way I'll tell you
what I am I am rarely just absolutely
envious of somebody else's writing so
I've had that experience it's like Harry
Potter I just got to tell you that
woman's frickin genius okay so it's just
the way it is and Carl Sagan could could
tell could tell a story and Richard
Dawkins in his prime you know and some
of the things that he
done has been incredible but when Jen
Hawk scribbled that thing out I heard
when she started it and it wasn't long
later that she was done believe me it
was like I'll get back to you in about
half an hour Doug I've been working on
something tremendous Jen just a just a
just a work of art yeah go ahead and
anything yeah you can talk you go trap
alarm over here oh you already finished
it right now we're putting the bar next
one better be much better yeah go ahead
Nathan no it's just an excellent article
I really can't say more than you already
did dr. Lyle about it but but the
question I have is about this extreme
polarization like I've done I got some
nasty emails and I've seen nasty
comments on Facebook on the social media
sites got some emails that you know
after the podcast last week people are I
suspect they were misinterpreting what
you're saying or hearing what they
wanted to hear out of it whatever it is
mm-hmm
but but I you know I haven't seen it
this bad since people started to start
talking politics you know it's it's
sorted Jen's this is your your hey you
wrote it it's talking about sort of
polarization just generally not
necessarily about you know anything that
I was saying or that you were saying
last week but it's I I have been quite
astounded by how politicized it has
become and how quickly and you know I
talked about in that article and if
people if people want to read it again
we'll all send that to Nate so you can
put it on the beat your genes page it's
also posted on my website at Jen Hakam
if people want to find it but the I was
talking about essentially the the Stone
Age incentives that we have to be to
bring new information to the village so
there weren't a lot of ways in the Stone
Age to improve your lot in life you were
you were born into a caste system that
revolved around looks and ability it's
very much like high school and
so you were kind of stuck with the
social standing that you had but one of
the one of the best ways to improve your
position and we've talked about many
many different examples of this on on
various podcast and elsewhere was to to
bring some useful knowledge to the
village that improved everybody's
chances of survival and gene-gene
survival and that could come in the form
of good news and it often did so hey I
discovered a better way to build a
mousetrap I discovered a new food that
we we a new place a new a new hunting
ground I discovered something very
positive I learned from somebody that I
met at an in another village and I'm
bringing that back to you but it also
very often came in the form of
essentially bad news and bad news could
be an early warning you know I I was
over the hill and I saw the advancing
barbarians and we better get out of here
and so people who were burying bad news
you know there was a chance of vastly
increased social status that accompanied
that and so we have a built in little
Stone Age circuit that kind of gets us
excited about bad news and and then you
you insert that circuit into a world of
social media and everybody has their own
little their own little soapbox that
they can get up on and we know that
people once they make essentially a
public declaration of an opinion or you
know any kind of assertion and the
public sphere on their Twitter feed or
on Facebook once they've committed to it
the costs of reversing that position
increase massively you you are it you
were very disinclined to correct
yourself later on once you've committed
to a stand on something like that so
that's part of what why people just tend
toward polarized debates about
everything in general is everybody has
their own little megaphone and they've
committed to their position and they're
risking a major major status hit to
reverse position the correct thing to do
from from an evolutionary perspective is
to double down on what you have stood
behind and if you have if you're a
certain the worst and you're the bearer
of bad news and you're out there posting
the data that says that this is going to
be a total catastrophe and all of our
systems are going to collapse you've put
yourself in a situation where you you
have an evolutionary logic that is
driving you to commit to that and double
down on it and essentially hope for the
worst-case scenario
and it's it's a really it's a it's a
difficult place to be and you're you're
your captive to strong Stone Age
algorithms that are driving that kind of
incentive because the potential payoff
is so high if you turn out to be right
because you you brought this information
to the village you tried to warn the
fools that there's a lot more status
associated with that then oh hey my bad
I guess I overreacted whoops like that's
not that's not going to be a good look
for you in the Stone Age so the the
polarization rounded in the the degree
to which people have have really dug in
and are becoming like catastrophizing
and advocates I think there are very
good evolutionary reasons for that but
it has led to a real deterioration of
conversation about this and it's one of
the reasons that I have had to really
make sure that I follow my own advice
and stay off of social media for the
most part and really carefully exposed
like choose my sources carefully so you
know the article we're talking about
from the Nobel laureate that guy is a
you know he won that prize for for
complex chemical modeling he's a
biophysicist this guy is it is a useful
source of information about this problem
where you know my cousin's on my
facebook feed are not not exactly the
greatest resources so you just have to
be the discerning the careful control
your environment just like we're always
talking about controlling your
environment your environment is
absolutely you know defining your life
experience whether that's who you're
spending time with which you may or may
not have as much control over given the
current quarantine situation but it's
also your information environment
and what kinds of resources and
information you're exposing yourself to
on a regular basis and it's especially
when you are predisposed to to hear
things like relative risk and these big
numbers that are being thrown around and
the the the over-representation of
outlier cases that are just going to
lend themselves to splashy headlines on
social media and elsewhere like oh
another 39 39 year old healthy person is
is you know falls ill and is dead within
a week from this thing it's very very
scary very over-represented because if
it bleeds it leads that's the story that
you're going to see you're not going to
see the story about the 75 year old with
complications from diabetes who was very
likely to die this year or next year as
as Doug is pointing out those those
stories do not make headlines you were
being exposed to a non representative
environment of information if you're not
careful so those are those are a lot of
the pitfalls that people will get into
around us which is you know why I really
appreciate it doctor dr. Lao your video
when you basically said that that it is
the right move to overreact until you
know more because not overreacting could
cost you your life
and you know in the Stone Age and so now
but now that we know as more data
becomes available then we should shift
our behavior as we know more and more
about this so that that actually gives
no sigh of relief because yo it allowed
me the the that okay I can give up the
status that maybe I had been holding on
to because you know all of a sudden now
yeah that was the right move may no
longer be the right move when we have
more data so yeah I also I don't know if
people are aware of this but it's an
election year so there's some context
with that as well and there are you know
we've talked about what we call perverse
incentives in the political science
world on the show before and the you
know sort of there are perverse
incentives to you know be be seeking
news that is is disturbing to keep
things somewhat uncertain and
advanced political agendas on both sides
of the table so there's a lot of there's
a lot of leveraging of a moment like
this that's going to be it's it's
politically irresistible so anybody who
is in the business of politics is going
to be at some level excited about a
crisis because it provides a lot of
opportunities to rally the troops and to
you know pursue other agendas and to do
a lot of different things there there
there's a lot of great political science
written about this kind of phenomenon
and you're seeing both parties doing
that too to some significant degree and
it's getting amplified in the months
leading up to a very important election
and I think we can just expect a lot
more of that and sort of competing
agendas for how to interpret information
as it develops particularly as as it
remains as it has any uncertainty with
it at all which it currently does mm-hmm
now so the next question I have then is
is about the economic impact and then
the more personal economic impact so
obviously you know the economy has been
going down quite a bit for a couple of
weeks more so than we've ever seen at
least I've ever seen in my lifetime and
and you know I have faith in the the
system that it will recover but in the
short term what what advice do you have
for for pay maybe people who are either
getting laid off or businesses who may
be struggling or anything anything in
that realm dr. Lyle dr. Hawke yeah I
it's good question I mean this is a
there's some so many different
perspectives because people's situations
are also different this is where we
learn you know it if you if you go
through a tough time here then then it
will be an important lesson the the
great basketball coach John Wooden who
was so full of little little concepts
that he would distill into sayings to
try to teach his young men really about
life
and one of them was a saying that says
when you lose don't lose the lesson and
that's that's what I would say here that
the lesson is be prepared you know any
any any sort of financial adviser
analysts anybody that thinks about any
of these issues knows that you should
reasonably be able to handle six months
of serious trouble that's why you have
insurance that's why you have savings
you know you don't know that you're not
going to be in some nasty auto accident
and laid up and not being able to work
then you're going to have some degree of
unemployment and you're gonna have some
stopgaps but you know careful of your
overhead relative to your ability to be
resilient to some unforeseen
circumstances so the and if it turns out
this that this what happens here in the
next 60 90 120 days which I don't think
it's going to be an economic calamity
for that long but it could be if it is
and you know there are serious problems
that you you know that you have to
struggle with which there will probably
be inconveniences there probably will be
nothing quote serious the in other words
you may be inconvenienced your savings
may go down you may have to increase
your debt you know etc you may have to
apply three times for unemployment
because the government's slow getting it
to you we don't know what the problems
are you might have to move in with your
mother and get a foreclosure but I just
understood that you know the law is
stepping in and stopping that kind of
thing from happening so however if you
are kind of seriously inconvenienced and
it's unpleasant and it's embarrassing
and it's uncomfortable let's keep it in
perspective you're probably not going to
be cold you're not going to be hungry
and you're not you're your life isn't
going to be threatened you're going to
be inconvenienced and you're gonna have
a financial setback if that's
uncomfortable and results in a lot of
dislocation of your life which it could
if that's true then it's gonna be
frustrating and bitter and disappointing
and all sorts of things
but if when you lose don't lose the
lesson and that means okay next time I
won't play quite so close to the edge I
will be a little bit more conservative
with my behavior and I will be better
prepared for trouble and always you know
that's a that's why we have insurance
for various things but when it comes to
sort of short and intermediate term
calamities that could impact your life
significantly that's why the the best
insurance that you can have is to have
some money saved in the bank and to have
an overhead that you know that you can
cover for a period of time of trouble so
that's that's what I would tell you and
if it turns turns a little bitter and
you got to sell your cell your Mercedes
let them reprint possess it that's okay
we can we can get past all of that
because in the end what really is going
to count is your health as long as you
get this thing through this thing and
you're healthy which the overwhelming
majority of people will
okay so let's you know let's just
revisited so let's suppose that you are
an elderly person now let's suppose that
you are at high risk what are we really
looking at you are if you are in your 70
something's late 70s your odds may be
four out of a hundred if you get the
virus that you don't make it but the
odds of the virus visiting you are
probably no better than one out of ten
they might be higher but they're
probably not so that means that that's
about four out of a thousand so probably
four out of a thousand seventy seven
year olds yet you know we'll face this
problem that means 996 out of a thousand
more so let's keep in mind this is not a
tidal wave although the numbers could
look like it it's a threat yet you know
it could touch your life directly but
most likely the the most likely way that
it touches your life is going to be you
know in your pocketbook and being
inconvenienced
hopefully most of us will be fine will
be slightly annoyed and bitter and
uncomfortable about some there our
balance sheet isn't as good as it was
planning to be by the summer but that is
not a problem that's what I call BS
problems those aren't real problems and
in most of the problems that will come
out of this are inconveniences not
tragedies so but we can we can always
learn the lesson if we if we need to and
if we have to go through this and it
gets uncomfortable than it does but
we'll be better prepared next time
I was reading that world or Meadows
world Oh Meadows world Oh meters dot
info a couple of days ago and I was it's
interesting that SARS the the severe
acute respiratory syndrome had a death
rate of almost 10% yeah and the mayor's
which is the Middle East respiratory
syndrome was like 30 over 30 percent yes
so yeah and yet I don't remember such a
crisis cycle well there's a few thousand
people that died yeah it was smaller
yeah smaller numbers and also I mean
don't underestimate the rapidity with
which the information has spread with
social media like I know I'm harping on
that but it's a the during that
certainly further SARS a little little
different for the Middle Eastern
respiratory but the the SARS crisis that
was I don't remember what year that was
but it was maybe 2000 to 2004 somewhere
in that neighborhood and it was you know
we were not living and the kind of
constant information overload kind of
state that we are now where people could
share information and information could
spread as quickly as it does and as
could misinformation and exaggerated
numbers and you know the sort of
over-representation of outliers all of
these things are contributing to a
little increased level of hysteria I'd
also just add to what Doug was saying
about don't lose the lesson that you
know I really I really appreciate that a
lot of people are not you know don't
don't have savings you know a lot of
huge percentage of people have less than
$1,000 in savings or no say
at all and are just completely
vulnerable to this kind of situation and
and you know have gotten in that
situation because of a lot of different
interacting life circumstances so it's
it's don't don't lose the lesson not
just in the sense that oh well you
should have more money in the bank
because you know of course you should
have more money in the bank and it
doesn't always seem possible to do so
but that's you know that's a lot of what
we're what we're talking about about the
difficult decisions that you have to
make you know downstream with with how
you're designing your life and the the
kind of environment that you're creating
for yourself has has a lot to do with
your ability to set up that kind of
safety net for a moment like this so
people will get in these situations of
financial dependence on other people
that will essentially bypass the process
of creating your own safety net you know
whether it's marriage or whether it's
dependence on parents or dependence on
adult children or any any number of
different types of enmeshment that
people get themselves into and they get
complacent and and you know don't don't
kind of defend their own experience
against the worst-case scenario so
that's one way that this can happen
another is that people will be in a job
where they're not making very much money
and they're not able to save as much
money as they would like because of a
personality distortion of agreeableness
their conscientiousness or all kinds of
different things I mean there are just a
million different scenarios that are
going to contribute to environmental
choices that make protecting yourself
against this kind of situation more
difficult so you know when we're talking
about don't lose the lesson its
encompassing all of that it's
encompassing the way that you're
designing your life and making these
choices and who you're spending your
time with that all of those things are
contributing to the the overall context
that makes you more or less resilient to
any kind of crisis including including a
public health one like this one yes
dr. Hawks are you suggesting that we
that we design our life to have friends
and potential mates as people that we
could see ourselves being quarantined
with
yeah well ideally yeah I mean that's
kind of like a little it's a little snap
test of you know if you're if you're
stuck with these people for an
indeterminate amount of time and you
hate them you know it's it's if you're
in a relationship that you haven't been
happy with and now you find yourself
locked in with that person and surviving
this this experience with them and it's
bringing all of these issues to a head I
mean I've been talking about all the
liquor stores are closed
yeah I've been talking about a lot of
people who are having you know some
version of that experience and that's
that's another like you know the
universe is telling you something it's
telling you that this was this was never
the right relationship and we just had
to really escalate the circumstances to
make that abundantly clear so yeah don't
don't forget that when we get back to
normal life and it's it is you know
we'll use the word inconvenience a lot
to sort of describe the your willingness
to pay your willingness to be
uncomfortable to make big changes in
your life because you can always you
know ease make the changes you can
always quit the job you can always quit
the relationship you can always break
the contract but it it often brings with
it an estimated level of discomfort and
dislocation and inconvenience that we're
not willing to pay and so this this kind
of moment it's a pop quiz about well how
are you are you sure you're not willing
to pay it you know and how much are you
willing to pay and you might discover
that those parameters are not what you
thought they were once you're really
stuck this stuck with somebody they're
stuck stuck in a situation or stuck
confronting a level of financial
insecurity that you you weren't prepared
for so all of these things are
opportunities to really reflect on the
choices you've been making and how you
can hopefully move forward with a little
more you know a little more attention to
these kinds of things going forward yeah
I have just a couple little rules of
thumb that I better that are kind of
just worth passing through people's
minds and
is that there are hundred dollar
problems they come up all the time
you get hundred dollar surprises
thousand dollar surprises are rarer
they're significantly rarer but they
happen ten thousand dollar surprises are
very rare
unless you're if you're a high income
person and you're doing a bunch of
business and $10,000 surprises are
common but I mean relative to a person's
ability to survive and be reasonably
comfortable ten thousand dollar
unpleasant surprises are not common the
so it would make sense to be looking to
try to get ourselves first to $1,000
saved to get to essentially buffer
ourselves from fairly intermediate-level
unpleasant surprises we get to five
thousand dollars saved now we buffered
ourselves against quite a few problems a
high percentage of them you get to ten
thousand dollars saves you've buffered
yourself against a lot of life's
unpleasant vicissitudes and so that's a
kind of thing where you know with you
know young people will say listen you
know this is we should be in a position
where if you know something bad happens
you've got a way to reach out put your
hands on that kind of level of income or
that level of money maybe your mom has
it and it's not a problem at all
maybe you've got it somewhere already
salted away that's fantastic and maybe
you have good credit near the credit
line and you could do it but by by some
method it's essentially what you want is
a buffer zone between you in trouble and
now you know right now the the
government knows that this is a problem
for millions of people right now and so
they're they're trying to come in and
basically be that you know essentially
be that buffer zone and so they're going
to do what they can but mostly what we
want to do is be be prepared ourselves
so that's that's about all I have to say
about it
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