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back everybody to the second live of the
day we have a tripleheader for you today
and in the middle we have one of my
favorite people think about it when you
think about an Oreo cookie there were
two cookies and then there was the
middle and the middle was then the best
part and so this could be the best part
of your holiday
this is dr. Doug Lyall I could talk to
him every day if he'd let me I wish that
when you turned on TV all you saw was
dr. Lisle all the time that would be
just amazing he's not only one of my
favorite people on the planet but he's
probably one of the most brilliant
people you'll ever meet and I think
there's only one person in the history
of the world it's never been smarter
than him
this guy Albert Einstein just kidding if
I had a dr. Lyle doll I would show it to
you now guys as you know I do have a lot
of these interviews with doctors and I
really do try to answer your questions
but if you are familiar with dr. Lyle he
likes you very thought out answers and
so to interrupt him and be like like
interrupting a magician during a magic
show so it's not to say that you won't
get your question answered but if you
don't please know that you can book a
private consultation at esteemed
dynamics calm you can listen to almost
200 episodes I think more now of his
weekly podcast beat your genes but he's
here today to talk about a very specific
subject he's talked a lot about Kovic
he's a former statistics professor and
about he's talking about that many of
the podcasts and even interviews but I
asked him to come on today to talk about
anxiety specifically because I'm hearing
from a lot of you guys on these live
broadcasts and people in my groups or
people that I I know that there seems to
be kind of two camps there's some people
and again we are not minimizing this
pandemic we do not wish anybody to
suffer or die or lose their job we're
dealing with the fallout of this and
this happens to be Mental Health Month
in May and I'm noticing that there are
people that maybe didn't have much
anxiety or maybe had minimal anxiety and
now their anxiety is through the roof
and there are people like myself who are
actually calm now that this is this not
not the pandemic but the sheltering
there's something about this in Alaska
as I had on the show Elsbeth that is
just bringing kind of a sense of relief
and so I wanted him to address that and
of course you know we know this is
difficult times people that were getting
married are getting
in parking lots people can't attend
funerals or visit their parents in
nursing homes so we're not minimizing
any of that I'm just trying to get to
the nitty-gritty why people are reacting
differently and basically what we can do
about it how we can all create a sense
of peace or come around this even though
it's uncertain and just have better
mental health so I will now shut up for
the remainder of the broadcast and turn
it over to dr. Doug Lyall well please
don't
AJ make sure that if people have
questions let's make sure that that we
hear them the but if we're going to try
to learn about anxiety or how to reduce
it for yourself then it it pays to sort
of begin at the beginning and to
understand what anxiety is and in order
to understand what anxiety is we
actually have to go one step further
back from that and realize that anxiety
is a belongs to a class of of phenomena
that we're gonna call feelings and
there's going to be basically two types
of feelings that animals have one of
them are going to be physical sensations
and the other one are going to be if
they're complicated enough and how
they're built they're going to have
emotional reactions and so the two we're
all aware that you know physical
sensations if I take a pin and I prick
my finger then I'm going to have be in
pain but I have someone that's really
talented at massage and they massage my
hands it feels good okay if you if you
smell something that's rotten it's it's
it's a very unpleasant sensation and
that you want to actually move away from
it if you if you have smells something
that's very bout likely to be very tasty
then you want to move towards it so
essentially at the most fundamental
level what sensations are is they are
devices that will but they'll run a
gamut between something that's
attracting you something that's
repelling you or everything in between
so when you walk by a chair in your
kitchen you are neither attracted to it
maybe because you're not attending to
sit down no
are you particularly repelled by it
you're held a little bit as if you run
into it you could hurt yourself so you
will be mildly avoidant of it but you
can see that a great deal in in fact
most of the world's stimuli are neither
for you nor against you particularly
there are certain classes of stimuli or
certain stimuli that are very much for
you or very much against you so if
you're a koala bear
then eucalyptus leaves are for you and
you really like the smell of them and
you'd like to be around them and you
like to eat them ok but if you're a
human you may like to smell them
eucalyptus leaves which I do but it's
not the same level of pleasant sensation
because I don't want to eat the and so
what we're gonna find is that there's
only a very small percentage of the
world's stimuli that are gonna cause you
to feel attracted to you and move
towards it and there's a small
percentage of the words stimuli which
are going to repulse you and get you to
stay away from it that's just basically
how valuable it is for your survival or
how threatening it is for your survival
now there's more than just survival
there's also reproduction so in other
words you're going to be attracted to
some individuals and you're going to be
repulsed by some individuals and so this
is when it comes to reproductive
activities so basically we're going to
see that sensations these direct contact
of some kind of sensory information to
to the sensory neurons those are going
to cause feelings most of the feelings
are very neutral and some of them are
very positive some of them are very
negative some member somewhere in
between the so that this is how light
works
now there's a nother kind of feeling the
second type of feeling is going to be
what we call emotion or also moods
psychologists have sort of argued with
each other whether moods or emotions are
the same thing is all a useless argument
yeah this is goes back in the history of
psychology that's all entertaining to
read these guys arguing about this in
the 1960s the truth of the matter is is
that emotions are
is all the same process and what they
are is that they are like sensations
just as sensations are signals to tell
you either move towards something move
away from something or neither
so our emotions okay so emotions are a
little bit different there a little
craftier in the sense that they can
anticipate things that they can
anticipate for example sensation so some
guy in his history class at the
university sees some girl that he thinks
is cute okay
so we sat in a pleasant sensation
looking at her now if he is he starts to
think about approaching her he gets
anxiety and excitement and now if he
approaches her and she smiles and they
have a little chat and he asked her out
and she says yes he's very happy but do
we have a sensation well we've got a
little bit of sensation but that's
actually not what's exciting or
interesting from the standpoint of
psychology what he has is emotional
responses and the emotional responses
are very positive great excitement and
the reason why that's true
is that it's anticipating sensation okay
so he's anticipating what it would be
like to have sex with her that's what
he's anticipating so the emotional
response is an anticipatory signal for
the sensation okay if you are convicted
in a court of law and you're going to be
sent to prison you have a very bad
emotional reaction when they write when
they when they read you the guilty they
you're like why well nothing nothing
very much sensation wise has changed in
that room it's the same air-conditioned
room with the judge up there a nice
furniture and people in suits and your
mother's next to you it's like what's
changed the answer is is that your
future has changed and what about the
future is changed you're anticipating
being in some stinky cell with some some
guy that you don't want to be in there
with and a bunch of bad food and a bunch
of confinement so you're anticipating
your sensations of
the future and those anticipations are
causing an emotional response okay so
when we look at what emotions our moods
are what they are mostly about is that
they are the anticipation of future
sensation that includes for example
being excited that dinner is about to be
served
okay so you're like I'm excited why your
sensations haven't changed your your
tasting anything you might not even
smell anything you just got a signal
from your mom on the on the cell phone
that says suppers ready
okay and you're up there playing your
video games but but she said it's
spaghetti your favorite okay now so
there's no sensation but what there is
is that there's information that's
activating memory systems and it's
actually causing you to realize oh my
gosh in about four minutes I'm gonna
have a mouthful of my favorite spaghetti
and so that's an emotional response
that's signaling to you what to do get
yourself to close down the videogame and
get downstairs for dinner and so that
pretty soon you're gonna be having a
very good sensation okay so when we
really break it down now while we can
start to see what all emotions are
they're not mysterious at all what they
are what they're all doing is that they
are signaling either biological profits
or biological threats that's all they
are okay and the same thing with
sensations so when you look at something
you look at sort of the vacant lot or
the trash what's it to me okay
it's not my vacant lot I don't have to
do anything about it so you're not
having any particularly positive feel
about but if you go go for a ride and
your friend says close your eyes and
then you come around the corner and you
see the Pacific Ocean you know the your
and you're like wow that's because
seeing a big body of water like that
from an elevated place that's a pleasant
thing for human nature because human
beings like the local water whose water
is critical for human survival and they
always sought out large bodies of water
because it was a safe place to live so
when we start to see that our sins
stations and our moods and emotions
these are all beautifully woven parts of
our architecture and the fact that they
are is that what that what that
psychological architecture is all about
is it's about motivation okay
so motivation is all about what's going
to move you or motivate you to actually
take actions now so now we can look at
something like anxiety and we can
understand it in context so what anxiety
is is this an emotion there's a lot of
different ones we've got names for these
things so that we can sort of understand
you know we can communicate and talk to
each other about them so I'm really
scared or oh I'm really excited
oh I'm in love or you know oh I'm really
happy or oh I'm really depressed these
are all emotions and they are they are
signals of what our our analysis is of
our situation needs to be the
environment so anxiety excuse me I've
got my neighbours do a lot of work
outside they're not sheltering inside it
oh what's up that's okay
all right beyond so now what we're going
to see is that our anxiety is it's going
to be a signal and it's really pretty
clear what that signal is it's as clear
a signal as smelling something this
smells terrible okay if you smell
something terrible you want to pull
yourself away from it because it's
potentially dangerous yeah if it smells
terrible it's probably got bacteria in
it too dangerous for you that's why it
smells bad okay
that's why manure doesn't you know you
want to pull yourself away from it
that's not true if you're a dumb fly
you're a dumb fly if you smell done
nothing could smell bad and dumb because
it's good for you get us where you're
gonna make your living and that's where
you're gonna lay your rights so the what
the stimuli is objectively is neither
good nor bad subjectively is where it's
all at
in other words what is it to you so if
you're a great white shark and you see
another great white shark and it's you
know the opposite sex and you're all
excited about it
right
but if I see a great white shark I'm
terrified so it'sit's the subjective
view of what's good we're bad for you
that's what this is about okay
so people's anxiety and corona what's it
about what it's about is it's about
there's a threat out there we've all
learned that there's the threat and
we're trying to get a feeling for how
significant is it so if someone were to
tell me three months ago well I think
the stock market's probably going to go
up might be a good idea to invest a
little more money in the market I'd be
like what do I care that's not very
exciting or they might say oh I think
it's gonna take a little downturn to
better sell what you have it'd be like
like what's the news like a little bit
up a little bit down what do I know what
does he know who cares hey you're not
gonna get me excited but if you just
tell me oh there's going to be a
worldwide pandemic and you know 100,000
or more people are going to die and this
is going to be a big big problem you'd
be like okay well now you've got my
attention and so the world didn't have
its attention riveted and fell probably
about the 1st of March and so we've now
gone through a couple of months now
where the world has been scratching its
head trying to learn about this threat
and it's not a good thing obviously it's
a bad thing and so therefore bad things
cause anxiety and anxiety is a signal to
tell you to avoid something that's what
it is if you're about to walk down an
alley in the middle of the night to
shortcut your way to your car that's
parked on the other street and you hear
the little tin can rattle you should be
very afraid you don't know whether
that's about a seven pound rat that's
gonna come out there and get you or
whether it's some some person that's
living in there that's obviously got
problems and it's been stable and
potentially dangerous so therefore it's
probably a good idea for you to walk
safely where it's well-lit and not try
to take the shortcut to your car
that's what anxiety is for anxiety is
for the purpose of having you aboard
trouble now let's look so far so good so
that's a lot of explanation for not much
but now we're going to get a little bit
more sophisticated it's going to turn
out that anxiety is going to have a
great deal to do with the possible
estimation of the worst case scenario so
if you had told me in January who the
stock market could really take a
substantial hit this year I'd be like oh
well I'm not that rich and I don't have
that much money in the market anyway you
know what do I care
ok so even if it did it's not a
catastrophe
now if you told me that there was some
German that was going to get loose in
the world that could kill you you'd be
like wait a minute that's a whole
different story why because of the
downside risk
so you're designed by a nature to have
your anxiety be responsive to the worst
case scenario when you're in the woods
you're hiking home at night and you hear
twigs snap what you don't do is you
don't say the following you don't say
well I've been on this trail 15 times
and i have never seen a large predator
in these woods and I have seen 800
squirrels in my time hiking in these
woods
and therefore the odds are overwhelming
that this is a squirrel no that's not
how your design you're designed by
nature to leap to the worst-case
scenario that is the most adapted thing
that your mind can do is to leap to the
worst-case scenario
that is because it is better for you to
be wrong a thousand times in a row and
always think it's a large predator
that's dangerous and turn around and be
ready to deal with it then to be white
999 times by saying to yourself oh it's
probably just a squirrel why bother and
to be wrong once ok so this is what I
call a Darwinian distortion that you
have actually been selected by natural
selection to have certain kinds of
thoughts and the kinds of thoughts that
you're designed to have are going to be
under runs
certain threat where the worst-case
scenario is death you are designed by
nature to leap to the worst-case
scenario so let me give you a really
good example how this sort of anxiety
plays out in human affairs the huge
amounts of people are afraid to fly
that makes sense it makes sense because
we're not designed to fly and in fact if
you get even if I get on top of a ladder
and I'm about 10 feet off the ground and
I look down I start to have an invisible
to go I have anxiety it's like whoa that
anxiety is a what a signal
it's an emotional response telling me
about a threat it's basically telling me
you better beat am paying attention
buddy because if you fall from 10 feet
you could easily break a lemon okay it
could be life-threatening if you if you
break a leg and it's Severson artery in
your leg dead okay if it breaks their
collarbone bad news really immobilize
any way you slice it yeah if I break a
bone it's going to hurt like hell and
it's going to be potentially dangerous
and so therefore because it's so
potentially very bad sensation and sign
of danger we should have it what an
emotion that anticipates it okay so the
emotion that's anticipating that as I
look down at the ground 10 feet up on
that ladder is whoa be careful be very
careful that's what I should feel and
that is what I will get
okay now I have a friend mine who is
very afraid of flying and he's blowing
all over the place for these terrifying
flying I would say terrified he's just
very very anxious about pizza and so
he'll call me up and he'll say just
reassure me I'm about to get on the
plane and just tell me I'm gonna live
and I'll say you're gonna live he goes
just Johnny just tell me yeah
this wife gets tired talking to him and
seriously his wife will say go call back
you know I mean I just get on the plane
you know so call me up
say yes we'll just tell me just reassure
me and unfortunately I have a little bit
of a blind spot because I'm kind of a
numbers nerd and so I think in terms of
numbers and I'm very comfortable with
numbers it's just sort of part of my
nature and part of my background so I
tell him Larry it's not a problem your
odds dying are one in two million I
can't tell you how many times this very
reasonable path of reassurance has
failed I can't seem to learn the lesson
he'll say well that doesn't do me any
good and I'll say one out of two
one out of two million it's all the same
to me all sounds the same because what
he can't stand is the idea of one okay
could be him could be this plane so I I
consistently fail I don't do a very good
job and I never have done a very good
job okay I can't seem to reassure him
very effectively I tried to give him
word pictures instead of one in two
million I try to say things like okay
you've got a friend that you are going
to be meeting at some restaurant in Los
Angeles in the next six months and you
don't know what day it is and you don't
know what time it is and you don't know
what restaurant it is but you're just
going to try to meet them sometime in
the next six months and they don't know
what day you're going to be looking for
what are the odds that you're going to
run into them and the answer I mean
particularly is let's say you don't live
in the same neighborhood okay so let's
say the two of you are at some point
going to be in either no New York City
what are the odds that you and that
specific friend are gonna meet you know
yeah at that restaurant the answer
unbelievably love he likes that better
but it still doesn't work very well
because he's thinking well there's times
when I did find something like yeah but
you weren't planning to you were
thinking about it isn't matter this is
the problem this is two of our most
psychologist miss diversity at Stanford
and Daniel Kahneman at Berkeley made a
career out of analyzing how is that
people have a difficult time sort of
translating or getting a grasp on
numbers and how easily they make
mistakes with these numbers and how
their intuitions can be off by many
orders of magnitude order of magnitudes
factor of ten so they can be like my
friend Larry one out of two one out of
two million all sounds the same to him
now the coronavirus given you here
numbers being thrown around and so
people people's minds were not designed
to large numbers they were designed for
very small numbers they were designed
for numbers the reason why there's so
much of what we do is how many out of
ten because we've got ten digits so we
use those ten digits early people that's
how they counted they didn't have any
writing implements so they're counting
on their fingers okay it's also you can
see how we wound up with another ability
to do one more one dose better and
that's like okay two tens and then four
singles twenty-four okay so you can see
how people could beat with enough brain
power and that's smarts they can sort of
get their way to 100 and they can get a
pretty good feel for what a hundred
would be as opposed to ten they have a
very lousy ability to grasp a thousand
they can do it in principle but once you
get to a thousand human beings intuition
is the boss okay once you get to a
million you can forget it you're talking
Greek to just about everybody so the
problem with the coronavirus is that
people all they need to hear is one just
like my friend Larry one in two million
one out of two what's the difference
there's one and it could be meat okay
I've actually had him go to the airport
and I said I once you just go to the
airport this is the days for 9/11 so
that when you could just go to the
airport and stand by and watch the
planes I have a homework assignment for
him I said go and watch the planes for
about two or three hours
at all the different gates coming and
going thousands of people coming and
going and I want you to know at the end
of all that you will have seen about
5,000 people that's like there's you
would have to be a thousand times more
than that thousands and thousands of
times until you finally get to one at
Union now that's a little bit hopefully
not much answer people have a very
difficult time of large numbers okay so
this is the problem that the corona
buddies karana virus is actually for the
vast majority of us is is a toothless
animal
it's the risks to you are extremely
small I've had women have called me up
and had wanted consoles because they're
very worried about their children well
of course they are the the twig snapped
in the woods and so as a result we have
to be thinking worst case scenario I
actually went to the trouble a few hours
ago AJ this morning I went out and I'm
not going to get it now and read numbers
but I went to the official CDC website
where they do the fatality counts and I
believe that as of today there have been
a total of nine people that had died of
corona virus that have been 14 years of
age or younger bang so as per my friend
Larry oh my god nine children I think
it's like yeah nine children had died of
this universal terrifying pandemic nine
children in America there are probably
50 million people of that age in the
United States
thank 50 million nine that one
that's unbelievable so you're you think
there probably have an exposure rate of
about five percent so probably two and a
half a million young people have had the
cry bites nine at that that's incredible
that's likely about what one in 300,000
so again the problem with my friend
Larry lives were one in 300,000 if
you're infected 1 and 300,000 1 out of 3
it's all the same to me
ok your child's possibility of dying in
an auto accident in this lifetime all
the actual odds are about 1 out of 60 I
want you to compute that against one out
of three hundred thousand and now you
start to get the idea that the most
important thing that you should be
thinking about your children and your
the life expectancy isn't the point
Advisors it's how modern and safe is
your car and what is your writing
attitudes may you have the brakes
checked that's a bigger factor in this
of whether or not your child survives
this year within the cronbach's now for
the rest of us our odds are a little
worse it turns out that that it's very
good news from Lorna's that we know
about the corona virus it looks like
kids and young people are extremely well
Kathy it also looks like older people
are the ones that are overwhelmingly the
victims so the better the majority of
the victims in the world are over 75
years old that's true in the United
States way more than half the people or
over 70 but even more than half the
people that die in the United States
have an average age of over 80 so this
is why you know between snapped on all
of us
in early March it snapped on the world
human beings look at each other and said
oh my god we're in trouble we have no
idea what's behind us but that's a scary
snap a twig snap and so very rationally
we all looked around and said be ready
for the predator more in trouble and so
I applied humanity towards collective
fascination and it's collective you know
fear and anxiety and response and so
around the world people realize we've
got a problem and it's pretty serious
probably we better be learning as fast
as we can so governments that
level United States government Singapore
government Japanese government you know
Italians Spanish Russians Australians
New Zealand's everybody everybody is
trying to figure this thing out
it has been an extraordinary response of
humanity in the last few months to try
their desperate best to try to figure
out what are we dealing with and how
should we deal together there's been a
variety of opinions on this as you would
expect it's Wild West it's just like if
you're hiking in a group of woods with
three friends in the Nerds woods now
there's going to be different
personalities you know one guy's six
foot six and you know 280 pound sumo
wrestler and he's like whatever okay I'm
not worried whatever that thing is you
know I fought I fought alligators with
my bare hands right somebody else has a
very different reaction they got bit by
a big dog when they were four and they
were on they almost killed so now
they're terrified so everybody's
personality is going to be different one
of them is a mother and she's got her
kid with her so everybody's going to
have a different reaction and I I have
no no disgust and no no frustration with
anybody's reaction here I have very
smart people that have been extremely
concerned and thinking that we're facing
very serious doom I don't in any way
disrespect their feelings it's like okay
we're under uncertainty here and you are
you you are leaping to the worst-case
scenario there's been other very smart
people that have said no I don't think
it's anything I think this is way
overrated yeah their opinions are not
they are also not ignorant they are also
under uncertainty and their
personalities are this like a Rorschach
test
you know what does the inkblot say to
you well to me what my dad used to tell
the story I won't repeat it here about
when I became a psychologist and found
out a story a funny dirty story
Rorschach tests but a guy who kept
seeing you know naughty female parts and
at the end of it this the psychologist
said wow you're you certainly seem to
have a hang-up about this sort of thing
and that and the patient said me you're
the one that's showing the dirty
pictures - my dad told me that joke 120
times my whole career so so this is this
is a Rorschach test that's what this is
and so I find myself like many people
sort of vacillating between the middle I
hear some bad news like oh my gosh this
could be worse than I was thinking and
then two days later the news looks a
little different in Sakhalin al I think
we're fine and then I go back oh I'm not
sure and then it's like oh I think we'll
fine then I go back and forth now I feel
like two months in I feel like I'll know
the story really well in about 30 days
there's reason why that's true there was
enough evidence has come in even despite
the fact that the science has been very
piecemeal it's been very hard to get
good data but there's so much data now
and now we've lived with the virus for
long enough we pretty well know okay so
we pretty well know that this virus
overwhelmingly implicates older people
particularly at there and so you know is
that true we've everybody's been
fascinated with any young people so AJ
sent me this course handsome young actor
who's in trouble then I hope he survives
I don't know that he will that the super
handsome young guy four years old looks
like the picture of health could he die
yeah he could and so this in the same
way that young people this particular
virus is particularly easy on younger
people save under 50 relative to things
like pneumonia or the flu so the flu is
much more dangerous for a 25 year old
person than the corona virus apparently
that have been seriously the kids the me
not be true but at least the corner by
is unlikely to be worse than flu but do
we sometimes get a 20 L P looking 25
year old that will die of the flu the
answers yes you will get those and they
don't terrify us anymore because we're
no longer under the state of the
uncertainty with the cloak
we're used we know that the flu if
you're a 25 year old today and you catch
the flu even though you may go through a
very rough couple of weeks you're not
thinking oh I'm going to die
whereas if here anybody now and you get
the corner virus and you go through that
couple of weeks will you happen to get
it bad you at the other end of it you're
thinking oh my god could have died they
that's because you didn't know whether
you were going to die or not but if you
were 45 years old and you've got the
corona virus and you a couple of weeks
let me tell you something your odds of
dying will immediately they will
probably quite a bit lower than you
dying with the flu had you gotten the
flu so the point is is that the you
don't notice so in retrospect when
you're giving you a report honestly to
people around you you're saying oh my
god I think I almost died and the truth
is no you didn't want to stack your odds
of having died as as a 45 year old
persons reported by their so seemingly
look now that's not true if you're 75 if
you're 75 and you almost die at the
coronavirus you might have almost died
the front backs
now people over 75 when we talk about
this being a disease of older people
it's it's we're not doing either two
things we're not dismissing old people
like tough luck you're on run and but
it's also true that the vast majority of
older people even if they were ill and
they got four advisers they were not
that in other words almost everybody
that gets the corner virus is going to
survive it and and that includes older
people but just to give you an idea who
is dining with the front of iris aj so
why are we having this discussion
because it's about anxiety and anxiety
is the Eastwood's thing that says oh
God what kind of trouble again and the
anxiety comes from uncertainty that we
don't know what kind of trouble woman
and so we instinctively lead to the
worst case scenario so now we have to
look that carefully plane this and see
is it a swirl or is it a line North Bear
okay what is it and and what this is is
it's some kind of funny-looking animal
and it's about I don't know sixteen
pounds
like it's not a squirrel you know I mean
it's some funny looking thing and it's
kind of looking at us not too boldly
it's kind of looking at us more like
whoa that's sixteen pounds that's just
big enough to be trouble
and I'm a little bit afraid but I
probably bigger and more intimidating
than that thing is so I'm probably fine
but I still look around for a stick okay
so that's kind of what this is now yeah
and you can imagine if you're frail in
the woods walking home to the village
and you're 78 years old and you're in
pretty bad shape and you see that
sixteen pound thing you should be more
afraid than if you're 55 and the numbers
would indicate that the roots your
numbers might be you might have a 2%
chance of doubt instead of two in a
thousand so that that would be the
difference between 1755 and 775 the yeah
but the most people in the United States
that have died in foreign environments
AJ are actually over 85 years old so the
biggest if you were to break up the the
numbers of people between 0 and 15 and
15 and 25 and 25 to 35 and 35 45 45 55
65 65 to 75 75 to 85 85 to 95 if you
were to break up the United States into
those groups most people that have died
at coronavirus or the great epoch so wow
that's the biggest cohort for people for
the 10,000 official
there's a lot of people over 85 in the
United States
millions of them but 10,000 of them have
died according the next most likely
group if you're a victim of quantity of
died from would be from the 75 to 85
group there's more of those people in
the world than there are from people at
over 85 so it's a bigger group because a
lot of people live in Billings
however that's the second biggest group
and it's about 10,000 fatalities then
the next most likely group is from 65 to
75 okay that's a lot less people who
died there that have died over there
from 75 to 95 so that's a 65 to 75
that's a big step down I think five or
six thousand 87,000 something like that
those are a huge group that's our that's
millions and millions of people live
that long so we have a huge amount of
those people we have a few thousand
fatalities and we know who those people
are
those people are overwhelmingly very
sick they are generally pretty dumb sick
people they're they're obese
hypertension 14 percent of Americans
smokes agent so there's when we were to
look at the odds of dying from 65 to 75
of Verona I think the odds are I think
your odds are that they might approach
half a percent maybe one out of 200 the
and my friend Larry would say one out of
two one out 200 what's the difference
okay what's the big difference so your
odds of dying from if you're 65 to 75
were probably maybe one out of 200 and
we know who those when I'm 200 are
there's an awful lot of very physically
compromised people there seven years old
that are walking around and remember 14
percent of those people are lifetime
smokers so now when we start to realize
okay what are the odds of me being in
trouble if I'm 50 and I'm a pretty good
health and I'm not a smoker and what
what are those odds
silver are they zero yeah but
they're much you're much safer being a
fifth year old in the United States with
coronavirus floating around then you are
being a fifth year old the United States
that drives okay so this is this is the
nature of the thing that we're looking
at and so the the anxiety that people
feel is because they don't have a feel
for these numbers and it's hard to get a
feel for these numbers because our minds
are actually built for small numbers
they're built for one in 10 one in 20
and the most important thing that
they're built for is one is there
anybody that we know that his guide of
this answer yeah that actor the well you
you can see his photo you know he exists
and you know that he may die and you
know he was for you and healthiest horse
and it's like oh my god if that's true
that could happen to me or my nephew
okay and so it could but that's because
you're not seeing 47,000 other people
that look just like him they've got the
cloner virus and didn't die from it
they that and you can't see because you
won't see this people so this is the
problem of trying to get your handle on
this and this is why our country in the
world is under the state of the anxiety
with it's under and that is that it's
very difficult for people to wrap their
heads around these big members because
they look like they're so now where are
we going with us and how are we going to
get out of this inside the the way we're
going to get out of this anxiety is that
people that are in charge of making
decisions they are they have to be
people that actually are comfortable
members and understand them very well
and so the problem is is that those
people have been listening to scientists
who themselves haven't known what the
truth is and what is this this is the
great world shock test for
epidemiologists of our time if you're a
worst case scenario guy you're saying oh
my god it could be terrible if you are a
more optimistic sort you're thinking
yeah I don't think it's too bad I think
it's gonna work out yeah it's going to
be a problem it's going to be a
particular
for our older people that it's going to
be not too bad
that's the Rorschach test okay we were
finding now as time passes that the
truth is leaning towards the not too bad
okay in other words the the terrible
fear that this was going to be the fear
was bit was that these numbers would be
potentially ten times worse than the
numbers that you're sent and if it had
been something like that this would have
been an all-out major catastrophe that
would that we would wire us to do
extraordinary things for long periods of
time it's now not looking at look it's
looking like a mess okay pretty bad mess
and it's going to have big financial
implications and etc but now what we're
starting to see is let me explain a
couple of major things that we've
learned we've learned for example that
Florida is not having the same process
than New York City like you know when it
comes to a new mess somebody has to be
first and unfortunately you know if
you're the first person that goes up and
takes the test in front of the group and
you don't know what it's about you you
look like the idiot and then the person
that goes second they now know what
they're up against and they can look a
lot better this is what has now happened
in the United States in the world so
some some place had to be first and
those places were Italy Spain New York
City you know those were hubs of
European traffic in New York is the
closest major hub we have to to Europe
you know the whole world goes to New
York
tons of plane flights New York is all
concentrated they got hit and they got
hit hard and it's bad okay so that's
what happened in New York people looked
at New York and a lot of particularly
older people in New York that lived
there you know a percentage of those
people 1% of those older people one or
two percent of those people got in
trouble so and many of them lost their
lives that's true
so I think they've got New York City I
think 15 thousand fatalities something
won't go the now everybody looked at
that and this of all spectrum of made
public and scientists took a look at
that and said look out for Florida
Florida has so many older people so many
people go to their retire this is going
to be a disaster employed okay that
would be reasonable except that now
Florida is not coming first they're not
the first to stand up in front of the
group
there's second they got see what
happened in New York they got to see
that our big problem is the older people
and so what what Florida is doing is
that they are being super careful about
the nursing homes that makes sense
okay this is also what's transpiring in
Sweden so the the Sweden epidemiologist
the head they've got a weird government
there they've got a very liberal
government which they've been criticized
you know and criticized and applauding
for the last 50 years about this
government and they've got a sort of
strange government where they don't have
one person that's in palace or we
distributed it out and so then they have
this sort of very friendly relationship
between the people and their government
where Americans are more contentious and
always fighting they just got a little
different society there and so their
society there they're headed there
epidemiology or public health he look at
the situation and he happened to be on
the optimistic side of the twig snapping
and he looked at and he said you know
it's not like this is a new concept it's
not like that a communicable virus and a
dangerous virus that hasn't visited the
world before this is what he's ever done
Jamie ologists do and they're likely
study for this but once again there was
a Rorschach test
and this man happened to be in charge of
that without a president that is worried
about a political situation because the
whole country knows no this is this is
our our health guy and he's he's in
charge and that's just how it's going to
go a lot of Swedish scientists
very smart people objected and they said
no we disagree with them and and I
completely respect them and they should
have voiced their opinion in case he
felt less certain and he was to change
his mind but he didn't and so in the
search strange little bizarre government
up in Scandinavia this guy said yeah I
think it's gonna be fine I think that we
need to protect our old people and he
said you know what we learned because we
lost a thousand or so older people
pretty quickly because we didn't get it
we didn't know them so now they are
protecting their older people they are
fatality rates are looking extremely
reasonable they have their society far
more open why because he recognizes that
people under sixty are going to be fine
if you are an older person and you are
compromised and you're 75 years old and
you're in a nursing mom or you're 85
years old in nursing we need to protect
you okay if you're not a nursing home
you need to protect yourself you need to
understand you better lay low and not
visit the grandchildren for a while till
we learn what these next few weeks you
need to be on the bench okay and it if
you're a grandkid or where a mom wants
to go visit your elderly mom who's
living independently and she's fine
then got a visitor not unless you know
you're personally clean okay so this is
the we don't know enough yet this is
sort of stage three right now we know
enough that the young cool people
hanging out on the beaches aren't going
to hurt each other
okay they could hurt their grandmother
if they go visit the grandmother and the
nursing mom so that's where the action
is this is now what Florida is doing
Florida is saying we are going to
protect our old people very carefully
but that doesn't mean that we're going
to be sequestering everybody else
because we now know that we don't need
to because we've got vast statistics now
showing that are a few forty seven
year-olds going to die at this yes but
Barry
here it's going to be why you're bad
luck in a car accident just I mean you
have to be exceedingly unfortunate for
this to reach you if you if you are a
person really under 65 it's it's really
unlikely so if you're if you are over 65
and you're ill you are vulnerable
well you survive almost certainly but
not certain so what do you better do
well that's a twig snap and you turn
around and it's it's a 32 pound animal
with teeth like okay it's probably not
going to kill you because you're a lot
bigger and you can grab the stick but it
might okay so you better be careful
don't be out there in the woods so the
answer to the anxiety age is that the
world is going to be quite a bit less
anxious a month from now as they find
out that Florida didn't fall apart
Florida's not going to fall apart
because they actually people that are
making decisions do you understand what
they're looking at
we now do understand that the great
threat of Corona is in our older people
that so we now know let me give you some
quick numbers we know that for example
in California that over a million people
have been affected the we know this from
a stays in the bay area of Los Angeles
the so clearly huge numbers of people
have been affected not less people that
is probably in Miami for example
apparently 6% of people had been
infected by a week or so ago or 10 days
ago so in other words the virus is out
there the virus is out there I may have
had the virus and so you know somebody
beside the virus you've been in the same
room with people in that once you may
have had about us I'm pretty introverted
by quality I probably don't have good so
I probably don't have bet I might I
might happen so a million Californians
found a virus you you have thousand
people or so have died the vast majority
of those people are older people then
then you know in nursing homes or you
know in compromising situations so how
many young people died in California out
of those million homeless night that so
it's that so a million people under 60
have had the corner virus in California
and it has been probably lighter than 50
fatalities so 50 out of a million it's
not nothing but it's it's car accident
level okay so that's why the a
reasonable position now is to kind of
obviously the country is antsy people's
finances are in trouble
so they have to do we have to start you
have to begin irrational process of
trade-offs and so when you when you look
at cars and put cars on the road some
people are going to die and when when
you do certain things when people work
on oil leaks people are going to get
injured okay so there there are some
some things about life where there are
trade-offs and you can minimize your own
exposure those trade-offs as much as you
can or you like circular example I don't
like to drive so I try to not ride very
much and I Drive a car that is big and
strong and so and I don't drive much at
night and never drink and so and so I do
a bunch of things that are out there and
mitigate my risk in the autumn of it
okay so I've had friends I never had
friend died in an automobile but I kept
friends injured and I don't want a back
injury or a neck injury for the rest of
my life as a result of an auto accident
so I'm careful Thanks so in the same way
that if you're particularly worried
about this then then he's smart don't go
out to restaurants and wear as long as
you want to to essentially protect
yourself you can be extra careful but we
don't need everybody to do this in the
same way that a person who wants to
drive their car and they want to drive
twenty-five thousand miles a year and
they like to Joyride and see the
countryside are they increasing their
risk yeah yeah is it fair that they do
so horses okay so what are their odds of
survival
overwhelmingly hi and that's going to be
the case with humanity with respect to
this particular virus we did not know
this two months ago nobody in they so
the right response was to panic
and to look over our shoulder and be
very careful the Rorschach comes in a
course from scientists and politicians
of all persuasions and everybody worried
and some people more worried about civil
rights in the economy other people more
worried about the virus and the impact
on other people and how we have to be
responsible this is a swirling cauldron
of differences of opinion we are slowly
moving our way to what looks like a
consensus which is we better be very
careful and responsible with our older
people and our older people that are not
in lockdown in facilities who are the
most vulnerable because you're in a
facility and one person can sweep rotten
through but if you are on your own in
and living on your own by then you need
to be wise about your own exposure if
you are help compromise and so you need
to you know I think New York City was
particularly a bad place to be if you're
an older health compromised individual
because they live in an apartment so
they're touching elevator buttons and
they're in close proximity and
restaurants that are crowded and
essentially you're around a lot of
people whereas if you're in if you're in
Sedona Arizona and you've retired there
its suburban and world and you're not
crowded in with a bunch of other people
all the time and so the the even if you
are health compromised your odds of
being in contact with high high
concentration of virus are much lower
and so I don't think we're going to see
you know at in different places in the
country people need to look at this
problem at certain different levels but
if you yourself personally or
compromised be wise and if you are if
you're like me I'm still a little
careful I
I have acai bowls delivered from Jamba
Juice AJ and this thing is I they're my
new thing all Riley burnout on acai both
another mother
but I discovered these about you know
actually a mutual friend of ours up
I'd forgotten I'm blanking on the name
but I got introduced to acai bowls and
and now suddenly and in the lockdown I'm
I'm into him but I've weighed them off
you know I'm in I'm I'm I'm fastidious
right now because I don't want to have
to go through a thorough an infection
and and so etcetera bet I'll probably
get burned out on those and and going
something else in alright I think that
kind of hopefully covers it your your
anxiety is a natural consequence of your
mind leaping to the worst-case scenario
the media is makes their money by
keeping you anxious and so it's not
their fault that's just the the animals
that they are this is a type of animal
the comedian is and so and the media on
the right is screening about your
terrible civil rights that you're
turning into a Nazi state and that and
the the political persuasion of the left
is saying oh my god fires terrible
catastrophe and people in the middle or
on all different sides of it and so
you're finding catastrophic
conversations on all sides component and
and to my way of thinking it's like
that's because we're under such deep
uncertainty I don't think that we live
in a police state now I don't think that
the government has been unreasonable
with a lot of the actions that they've
taken I think that they are the
appropriate thing when you look over
your shoulder and you hear the twig snap
you in inches I think we're going to
find that there there's reason to worry
and there has been but I think those
reasons will become clearer and you'll
have a better handle on the numbers and
as that happens I think our our life is
going to get a lot better pretty soon
that's what I think's happening AJ well
thank you thank maybe you'll come back
in 30 days or maybe sooner than 30 days
because this you know there was a
million questions and I that's why I
said at the beginning this wasn't the
Q&A they want that they can join feel
fabulous where
do a Q&A every month or if they could
have a private consultation you know
we're sorry that some people have
anxiety but I try to do a Q&A I wanted
to you know I know listen that you have
an open invitation I mean literally you
just say now I can go live with you
24-hour I said at the beginning I wish
there was 24-hour dr. Lisle TV whenever
you just have an inkling to talk to
people just text me and we'll put you on
right away cuz people love to ask you
questions you know
alright well we'll do a Q&A again soon
AJ all right well thank you so much dr.
Lisle thank you all for watching come
back in an hour when we have our third
session of the day and a lot of people
really appreciated this they said that
you calm them down and that they I think
if they listen to it again maybe it will
help also just you know I sure hope so
okay thanks dr. Lyle take care good to
see you hi
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