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Chef AJ: COVID-19 Anxiety | Interview with Dr Doug Lisle
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back everybody to the second live of the day we have a tripleheader for you today and in the middle we have one of my favorite people think about it when you think about an Oreo cookie there were two cookies and then there was the middle and the middle was then the best part and so this could be the best part of your holiday this is dr. Doug Lyall I could talk to him every day if he'd let me I wish that when you turned on TV all you saw was dr. Lisle all the time that would be just amazing he's not only one of my favorite people on the planet but he's probably one of the most brilliant people you'll ever meet and I think there's only one person in the history of the world it's never been smarter than him this guy Albert Einstein just kidding if I had a dr. Lyle doll I would show it to you now guys as you know I do have a lot of these interviews with doctors and I really do try to answer your questions but if you are familiar with dr. Lyle he likes you very thought out answers and so to interrupt him and be like like interrupting a magician during a magic show so it's not to say that you won't get your question answered but if you don't please know that you can book a private consultation at esteemed dynamics calm you can listen to almost 200 episodes I think more now of his weekly podcast beat your genes but he's here today to talk about a very specific subject he's talked a lot about Kovic he's a former statistics professor and about he's talking about that many of the podcasts and even interviews but I asked him to come on today to talk about anxiety specifically because I'm hearing from a lot of you guys on these live broadcasts and people in my groups or people that I I know that there seems to be kind of two camps there's some people and again we are not minimizing this pandemic we do not wish anybody to suffer or die or lose their job we're dealing with the fallout of this and this happens to be Mental Health Month in May and I'm noticing that there are people that maybe didn't have much anxiety or maybe had minimal anxiety and now their anxiety is through the roof and there are people like myself who are actually calm now that this is this not not the pandemic but the sheltering there's something about this in Alaska as I had on the show Elsbeth that is just bringing kind of a sense of relief and so I wanted him to address that and of course you know we know this is difficult times people that were getting married are getting in parking lots people can't attend funerals or visit their parents in nursing homes so we're not minimizing any of that I'm just trying to get to the nitty-gritty why people are reacting differently and basically what we can do about it how we can all create a sense of peace or come around this even though it's uncertain and just have better mental health so I will now shut up for the remainder of the broadcast and turn it over to dr. Doug Lyall well please don't AJ make sure that if people have questions let's make sure that that we hear them the but if we're going to try to learn about anxiety or how to reduce it for yourself then it it pays to sort of begin at the beginning and to understand what anxiety is and in order to understand what anxiety is we actually have to go one step further back from that and realize that anxiety is a belongs to a class of of phenomena that we're gonna call feelings and there's going to be basically two types of feelings that animals have one of them are going to be physical sensations and the other one are going to be if they're complicated enough and how they're built they're going to have emotional reactions and so the two we're all aware that you know physical sensations if I take a pin and I prick my finger then I'm going to have be in pain but I have someone that's really talented at massage and they massage my hands it feels good okay if you if you smell something that's rotten it's it's it's a very unpleasant sensation and that you want to actually move away from it if you if you have smells something that's very bout likely to be very tasty then you want to move towards it so essentially at the most fundamental level what sensations are is they are devices that will but they'll run a gamut between something that's attracting you something that's repelling you or everything in between so when you walk by a chair in your kitchen you are neither attracted to it maybe because you're not attending to sit down no are you particularly repelled by it you're held a little bit as if you run into it you could hurt yourself so you will be mildly avoidant of it but you can see that a great deal in in fact most of the world's stimuli are neither for you nor against you particularly there are certain classes of stimuli or certain stimuli that are very much for you or very much against you so if you're a koala bear then eucalyptus leaves are for you and you really like the smell of them and you'd like to be around them and you like to eat them ok but if you're a human you may like to smell them eucalyptus leaves which I do but it's not the same level of pleasant sensation because I don't want to eat the and so what we're gonna find is that there's only a very small percentage of the world's stimuli that are gonna cause you to feel attracted to you and move towards it and there's a small percentage of the words stimuli which are going to repulse you and get you to stay away from it that's just basically how valuable it is for your survival or how threatening it is for your survival now there's more than just survival there's also reproduction so in other words you're going to be attracted to some individuals and you're going to be repulsed by some individuals and so this is when it comes to reproductive activities so basically we're going to see that sensations these direct contact of some kind of sensory information to to the sensory neurons those are going to cause feelings most of the feelings are very neutral and some of them are very positive some of them are very negative some member somewhere in between the so that this is how light works now there's a nother kind of feeling the second type of feeling is going to be what we call emotion or also moods psychologists have sort of argued with each other whether moods or emotions are the same thing is all a useless argument yeah this is goes back in the history of psychology that's all entertaining to read these guys arguing about this in the 1960s the truth of the matter is is that emotions are is all the same process and what they are is that they are like sensations just as sensations are signals to tell you either move towards something move away from something or neither so our emotions okay so emotions are a little bit different there a little craftier in the sense that they can anticipate things that they can anticipate for example sensation so some guy in his history class at the university sees some girl that he thinks is cute okay so we sat in a pleasant sensation looking at her now if he is he starts to think about approaching her he gets anxiety and excitement and now if he approaches her and she smiles and they have a little chat and he asked her out and she says yes he's very happy but do we have a sensation well we've got a little bit of sensation but that's actually not what's exciting or interesting from the standpoint of psychology what he has is emotional responses and the emotional responses are very positive great excitement and the reason why that's true is that it's anticipating sensation okay so he's anticipating what it would be like to have sex with her that's what he's anticipating so the emotional response is an anticipatory signal for the sensation okay if you are convicted in a court of law and you're going to be sent to prison you have a very bad emotional reaction when they write when they when they read you the guilty they you're like why well nothing nothing very much sensation wise has changed in that room it's the same air-conditioned room with the judge up there a nice furniture and people in suits and your mother's next to you it's like what's changed the answer is is that your future has changed and what about the future is changed you're anticipating being in some stinky cell with some some guy that you don't want to be in there with and a bunch of bad food and a bunch of confinement so you're anticipating your sensations of the future and those anticipations are causing an emotional response okay so when we look at what emotions our moods are what they are mostly about is that they are the anticipation of future sensation that includes for example being excited that dinner is about to be served okay so you're like I'm excited why your sensations haven't changed your your tasting anything you might not even smell anything you just got a signal from your mom on the on the cell phone that says suppers ready okay and you're up there playing your video games but but she said it's spaghetti your favorite okay now so there's no sensation but what there is is that there's information that's activating memory systems and it's actually causing you to realize oh my gosh in about four minutes I'm gonna have a mouthful of my favorite spaghetti and so that's an emotional response that's signaling to you what to do get yourself to close down the videogame and get downstairs for dinner and so that pretty soon you're gonna be having a very good sensation okay so when we really break it down now while we can start to see what all emotions are they're not mysterious at all what they are what they're all doing is that they are signaling either biological profits or biological threats that's all they are okay and the same thing with sensations so when you look at something you look at sort of the vacant lot or the trash what's it to me okay it's not my vacant lot I don't have to do anything about it so you're not having any particularly positive feel about but if you go go for a ride and your friend says close your eyes and then you come around the corner and you see the Pacific Ocean you know the your and you're like wow that's because seeing a big body of water like that from an elevated place that's a pleasant thing for human nature because human beings like the local water whose water is critical for human survival and they always sought out large bodies of water because it was a safe place to live so when we start to see that our sins stations and our moods and emotions these are all beautifully woven parts of our architecture and the fact that they are is that what that what that psychological architecture is all about is it's about motivation okay so motivation is all about what's going to move you or motivate you to actually take actions now so now we can look at something like anxiety and we can understand it in context so what anxiety is is this an emotion there's a lot of different ones we've got names for these things so that we can sort of understand you know we can communicate and talk to each other about them so I'm really scared or oh I'm really excited oh I'm in love or you know oh I'm really happy or oh I'm really depressed these are all emotions and they are they are signals of what our our analysis is of our situation needs to be the environment so anxiety excuse me I've got my neighbours do a lot of work outside they're not sheltering inside it oh what's up that's okay all right beyond so now what we're going to see is that our anxiety is it's going to be a signal and it's really pretty clear what that signal is it's as clear a signal as smelling something this smells terrible okay if you smell something terrible you want to pull yourself away from it because it's potentially dangerous yeah if it smells terrible it's probably got bacteria in it too dangerous for you that's why it smells bad okay that's why manure doesn't you know you want to pull yourself away from it that's not true if you're a dumb fly you're a dumb fly if you smell done nothing could smell bad and dumb because it's good for you get us where you're gonna make your living and that's where you're gonna lay your rights so the what the stimuli is objectively is neither good nor bad subjectively is where it's all at in other words what is it to you so if you're a great white shark and you see another great white shark and it's you know the opposite sex and you're all excited about it right but if I see a great white shark I'm terrified so it'sit's the subjective view of what's good we're bad for you that's what this is about okay so people's anxiety and corona what's it about what it's about is it's about there's a threat out there we've all learned that there's the threat and we're trying to get a feeling for how significant is it so if someone were to tell me three months ago well I think the stock market's probably going to go up might be a good idea to invest a little more money in the market I'd be like what do I care that's not very exciting or they might say oh I think it's gonna take a little downturn to better sell what you have it'd be like like what's the news like a little bit up a little bit down what do I know what does he know who cares hey you're not gonna get me excited but if you just tell me oh there's going to be a worldwide pandemic and you know 100,000 or more people are going to die and this is going to be a big big problem you'd be like okay well now you've got my attention and so the world didn't have its attention riveted and fell probably about the 1st of March and so we've now gone through a couple of months now where the world has been scratching its head trying to learn about this threat and it's not a good thing obviously it's a bad thing and so therefore bad things cause anxiety and anxiety is a signal to tell you to avoid something that's what it is if you're about to walk down an alley in the middle of the night to shortcut your way to your car that's parked on the other street and you hear the little tin can rattle you should be very afraid you don't know whether that's about a seven pound rat that's gonna come out there and get you or whether it's some some person that's living in there that's obviously got problems and it's been stable and potentially dangerous so therefore it's probably a good idea for you to walk safely where it's well-lit and not try to take the shortcut to your car that's what anxiety is for anxiety is for the purpose of having you aboard trouble now let's look so far so good so that's a lot of explanation for not much but now we're going to get a little bit more sophisticated it's going to turn out that anxiety is going to have a great deal to do with the possible estimation of the worst case scenario so if you had told me in January who the stock market could really take a substantial hit this year I'd be like oh well I'm not that rich and I don't have that much money in the market anyway you know what do I care ok so even if it did it's not a catastrophe now if you told me that there was some German that was going to get loose in the world that could kill you you'd be like wait a minute that's a whole different story why because of the downside risk so you're designed by a nature to have your anxiety be responsive to the worst case scenario when you're in the woods you're hiking home at night and you hear twigs snap what you don't do is you don't say the following you don't say well I've been on this trail 15 times and i have never seen a large predator in these woods and I have seen 800 squirrels in my time hiking in these woods and therefore the odds are overwhelming that this is a squirrel no that's not how your design you're designed by nature to leap to the worst-case scenario that is the most adapted thing that your mind can do is to leap to the worst-case scenario that is because it is better for you to be wrong a thousand times in a row and always think it's a large predator that's dangerous and turn around and be ready to deal with it then to be white 999 times by saying to yourself oh it's probably just a squirrel why bother and to be wrong once ok so this is what I call a Darwinian distortion that you have actually been selected by natural selection to have certain kinds of thoughts and the kinds of thoughts that you're designed to have are going to be under runs certain threat where the worst-case scenario is death you are designed by nature to leap to the worst-case scenario so let me give you a really good example how this sort of anxiety plays out in human affairs the huge amounts of people are afraid to fly that makes sense it makes sense because we're not designed to fly and in fact if you get even if I get on top of a ladder and I'm about 10 feet off the ground and I look down I start to have an invisible to go I have anxiety it's like whoa that anxiety is a what a signal it's an emotional response telling me about a threat it's basically telling me you better beat am paying attention buddy because if you fall from 10 feet you could easily break a lemon okay it could be life-threatening if you if you break a leg and it's Severson artery in your leg dead okay if it breaks their collarbone bad news really immobilize any way you slice it yeah if I break a bone it's going to hurt like hell and it's going to be potentially dangerous and so therefore because it's so potentially very bad sensation and sign of danger we should have it what an emotion that anticipates it okay so the emotion that's anticipating that as I look down at the ground 10 feet up on that ladder is whoa be careful be very careful that's what I should feel and that is what I will get okay now I have a friend mine who is very afraid of flying and he's blowing all over the place for these terrifying flying I would say terrified he's just very very anxious about pizza and so he'll call me up and he'll say just reassure me I'm about to get on the plane and just tell me I'm gonna live and I'll say you're gonna live he goes just Johnny just tell me yeah this wife gets tired talking to him and seriously his wife will say go call back you know I mean I just get on the plane you know so call me up say yes we'll just tell me just reassure me and unfortunately I have a little bit of a blind spot because I'm kind of a numbers nerd and so I think in terms of numbers and I'm very comfortable with numbers it's just sort of part of my nature and part of my background so I tell him Larry it's not a problem your odds dying are one in two million I can't tell you how many times this very reasonable path of reassurance has failed I can't seem to learn the lesson he'll say well that doesn't do me any good and I'll say one out of two one out of two million it's all the same to me all sounds the same because what he can't stand is the idea of one okay could be him could be this plane so I I consistently fail I don't do a very good job and I never have done a very good job okay I can't seem to reassure him very effectively I tried to give him word pictures instead of one in two million I try to say things like okay you've got a friend that you are going to be meeting at some restaurant in Los Angeles in the next six months and you don't know what day it is and you don't know what time it is and you don't know what restaurant it is but you're just going to try to meet them sometime in the next six months and they don't know what day you're going to be looking for what are the odds that you're going to run into them and the answer I mean particularly is let's say you don't live in the same neighborhood okay so let's say the two of you are at some point going to be in either no New York City what are the odds that you and that specific friend are gonna meet you know yeah at that restaurant the answer unbelievably love he likes that better but it still doesn't work very well because he's thinking well there's times when I did find something like yeah but you weren't planning to you were thinking about it isn't matter this is the problem this is two of our most psychologist miss diversity at Stanford and Daniel Kahneman at Berkeley made a career out of analyzing how is that people have a difficult time sort of translating or getting a grasp on numbers and how easily they make mistakes with these numbers and how their intuitions can be off by many orders of magnitude order of magnitudes factor of ten so they can be like my friend Larry one out of two one out of two million all sounds the same to him now the coronavirus given you here numbers being thrown around and so people people's minds were not designed to large numbers they were designed for very small numbers they were designed for numbers the reason why there's so much of what we do is how many out of ten because we've got ten digits so we use those ten digits early people that's how they counted they didn't have any writing implements so they're counting on their fingers okay it's also you can see how we wound up with another ability to do one more one dose better and that's like okay two tens and then four singles twenty-four okay so you can see how people could beat with enough brain power and that's smarts they can sort of get their way to 100 and they can get a pretty good feel for what a hundred would be as opposed to ten they have a very lousy ability to grasp a thousand they can do it in principle but once you get to a thousand human beings intuition is the boss okay once you get to a million you can forget it you're talking Greek to just about everybody so the problem with the coronavirus is that people all they need to hear is one just like my friend Larry one in two million one out of two what's the difference there's one and it could be meat okay I've actually had him go to the airport and I said I once you just go to the airport this is the days for 9/11 so that when you could just go to the airport and stand by and watch the planes I have a homework assignment for him I said go and watch the planes for about two or three hours at all the different gates coming and going thousands of people coming and going and I want you to know at the end of all that you will have seen about 5,000 people that's like there's you would have to be a thousand times more than that thousands and thousands of times until you finally get to one at Union now that's a little bit hopefully not much answer people have a very difficult time of large numbers okay so this is the problem that the corona buddies karana virus is actually for the vast majority of us is is a toothless animal it's the risks to you are extremely small I've had women have called me up and had wanted consoles because they're very worried about their children well of course they are the the twig snapped in the woods and so as a result we have to be thinking worst case scenario I actually went to the trouble a few hours ago AJ this morning I went out and I'm not going to get it now and read numbers but I went to the official CDC website where they do the fatality counts and I believe that as of today there have been a total of nine people that had died of corona virus that have been 14 years of age or younger bang so as per my friend Larry oh my god nine children I think it's like yeah nine children had died of this universal terrifying pandemic nine children in America there are probably 50 million people of that age in the United States thank 50 million nine that one that's unbelievable so you're you think there probably have an exposure rate of about five percent so probably two and a half a million young people have had the cry bites nine at that that's incredible that's likely about what one in 300,000 so again the problem with my friend Larry lives were one in 300,000 if you're infected 1 and 300,000 1 out of 3 it's all the same to me ok your child's possibility of dying in an auto accident in this lifetime all the actual odds are about 1 out of 60 I want you to compute that against one out of three hundred thousand and now you start to get the idea that the most important thing that you should be thinking about your children and your the life expectancy isn't the point Advisors it's how modern and safe is your car and what is your writing attitudes may you have the brakes checked that's a bigger factor in this of whether or not your child survives this year within the cronbach's now for the rest of us our odds are a little worse it turns out that that it's very good news from Lorna's that we know about the corona virus it looks like kids and young people are extremely well Kathy it also looks like older people are the ones that are overwhelmingly the victims so the better the majority of the victims in the world are over 75 years old that's true in the United States way more than half the people or over 70 but even more than half the people that die in the United States have an average age of over 80 so this is why you know between snapped on all of us in early March it snapped on the world human beings look at each other and said oh my god we're in trouble we have no idea what's behind us but that's a scary snap a twig snap and so very rationally we all looked around and said be ready for the predator more in trouble and so I applied humanity towards collective fascination and it's collective you know fear and anxiety and response and so around the world people realize we've got a problem and it's pretty serious probably we better be learning as fast as we can so governments that level United States government Singapore government Japanese government you know Italians Spanish Russians Australians New Zealand's everybody everybody is trying to figure this thing out it has been an extraordinary response of humanity in the last few months to try their desperate best to try to figure out what are we dealing with and how should we deal together there's been a variety of opinions on this as you would expect it's Wild West it's just like if you're hiking in a group of woods with three friends in the Nerds woods now there's going to be different personalities you know one guy's six foot six and you know 280 pound sumo wrestler and he's like whatever okay I'm not worried whatever that thing is you know I fought I fought alligators with my bare hands right somebody else has a very different reaction they got bit by a big dog when they were four and they were on they almost killed so now they're terrified so everybody's personality is going to be different one of them is a mother and she's got her kid with her so everybody's going to have a different reaction and I I have no no disgust and no no frustration with anybody's reaction here I have very smart people that have been extremely concerned and thinking that we're facing very serious doom I don't in any way disrespect their feelings it's like okay we're under uncertainty here and you are you you are leaping to the worst-case scenario there's been other very smart people that have said no I don't think it's anything I think this is way overrated yeah their opinions are not they are also not ignorant they are also under uncertainty and their personalities are this like a Rorschach test you know what does the inkblot say to you well to me what my dad used to tell the story I won't repeat it here about when I became a psychologist and found out a story a funny dirty story Rorschach tests but a guy who kept seeing you know naughty female parts and at the end of it this the psychologist said wow you're you certainly seem to have a hang-up about this sort of thing and that and the patient said me you're the one that's showing the dirty pictures - my dad told me that joke 120 times my whole career so so this is this is a Rorschach test that's what this is and so I find myself like many people sort of vacillating between the middle I hear some bad news like oh my gosh this could be worse than I was thinking and then two days later the news looks a little different in Sakhalin al I think we're fine and then I go back oh I'm not sure and then it's like oh I think we'll fine then I go back and forth now I feel like two months in I feel like I'll know the story really well in about 30 days there's reason why that's true there was enough evidence has come in even despite the fact that the science has been very piecemeal it's been very hard to get good data but there's so much data now and now we've lived with the virus for long enough we pretty well know okay so we pretty well know that this virus overwhelmingly implicates older people particularly at there and so you know is that true we've everybody's been fascinated with any young people so AJ sent me this course handsome young actor who's in trouble then I hope he survives I don't know that he will that the super handsome young guy four years old looks like the picture of health could he die yeah he could and so this in the same way that young people this particular virus is particularly easy on younger people save under 50 relative to things like pneumonia or the flu so the flu is much more dangerous for a 25 year old person than the corona virus apparently that have been seriously the kids the me not be true but at least the corner by is unlikely to be worse than flu but do we sometimes get a 20 L P looking 25 year old that will die of the flu the answers yes you will get those and they don't terrify us anymore because we're no longer under the state of the uncertainty with the cloak we're used we know that the flu if you're a 25 year old today and you catch the flu even though you may go through a very rough couple of weeks you're not thinking oh I'm going to die whereas if here anybody now and you get the corner virus and you go through that couple of weeks will you happen to get it bad you at the other end of it you're thinking oh my god could have died they that's because you didn't know whether you were going to die or not but if you were 45 years old and you've got the corona virus and you a couple of weeks let me tell you something your odds of dying will immediately they will probably quite a bit lower than you dying with the flu had you gotten the flu so the point is is that the you don't notice so in retrospect when you're giving you a report honestly to people around you you're saying oh my god I think I almost died and the truth is no you didn't want to stack your odds of having died as as a 45 year old persons reported by their so seemingly look now that's not true if you're 75 if you're 75 and you almost die at the coronavirus you might have almost died the front backs now people over 75 when we talk about this being a disease of older people it's it's we're not doing either two things we're not dismissing old people like tough luck you're on run and but it's also true that the vast majority of older people even if they were ill and they got four advisers they were not that in other words almost everybody that gets the corner virus is going to survive it and and that includes older people but just to give you an idea who is dining with the front of iris aj so why are we having this discussion because it's about anxiety and anxiety is the Eastwood's thing that says oh God what kind of trouble again and the anxiety comes from uncertainty that we don't know what kind of trouble woman and so we instinctively lead to the worst case scenario so now we have to look that carefully plane this and see is it a swirl or is it a line North Bear okay what is it and and what this is is it's some kind of funny-looking animal and it's about I don't know sixteen pounds like it's not a squirrel you know I mean it's some funny looking thing and it's kind of looking at us not too boldly it's kind of looking at us more like whoa that's sixteen pounds that's just big enough to be trouble and I'm a little bit afraid but I probably bigger and more intimidating than that thing is so I'm probably fine but I still look around for a stick okay so that's kind of what this is now yeah and you can imagine if you're frail in the woods walking home to the village and you're 78 years old and you're in pretty bad shape and you see that sixteen pound thing you should be more afraid than if you're 55 and the numbers would indicate that the roots your numbers might be you might have a 2% chance of doubt instead of two in a thousand so that that would be the difference between 1755 and 775 the yeah but the most people in the United States that have died in foreign environments AJ are actually over 85 years old so the biggest if you were to break up the the numbers of people between 0 and 15 and 15 and 25 and 25 to 35 and 35 45 45 55 65 65 to 75 75 to 85 85 to 95 if you were to break up the United States into those groups most people that have died at coronavirus or the great epoch so wow that's the biggest cohort for people for the 10,000 official there's a lot of people over 85 in the United States millions of them but 10,000 of them have died according the next most likely group if you're a victim of quantity of died from would be from the 75 to 85 group there's more of those people in the world than there are from people at over 85 so it's a bigger group because a lot of people live in Billings however that's the second biggest group and it's about 10,000 fatalities then the next most likely group is from 65 to 75 okay that's a lot less people who died there that have died over there from 75 to 95 so that's a 65 to 75 that's a big step down I think five or six thousand 87,000 something like that those are a huge group that's our that's millions and millions of people live that long so we have a huge amount of those people we have a few thousand fatalities and we know who those people are those people are overwhelmingly very sick they are generally pretty dumb sick people they're they're obese hypertension 14 percent of Americans smokes agent so there's when we were to look at the odds of dying from 65 to 75 of Verona I think the odds are I think your odds are that they might approach half a percent maybe one out of 200 the and my friend Larry would say one out of two one out 200 what's the difference okay what's the big difference so your odds of dying from if you're 65 to 75 were probably maybe one out of 200 and we know who those when I'm 200 are there's an awful lot of very physically compromised people there seven years old that are walking around and remember 14 percent of those people are lifetime smokers so now when we start to realize okay what are the odds of me being in trouble if I'm 50 and I'm a pretty good health and I'm not a smoker and what what are those odds silver are they zero yeah but they're much you're much safer being a fifth year old in the United States with coronavirus floating around then you are being a fifth year old the United States that drives okay so this is this is the nature of the thing that we're looking at and so the the anxiety that people feel is because they don't have a feel for these numbers and it's hard to get a feel for these numbers because our minds are actually built for small numbers they're built for one in 10 one in 20 and the most important thing that they're built for is one is there anybody that we know that his guide of this answer yeah that actor the well you you can see his photo you know he exists and you know that he may die and you know he was for you and healthiest horse and it's like oh my god if that's true that could happen to me or my nephew okay and so it could but that's because you're not seeing 47,000 other people that look just like him they've got the cloner virus and didn't die from it they that and you can't see because you won't see this people so this is the problem of trying to get your handle on this and this is why our country in the world is under the state of the anxiety with it's under and that is that it's very difficult for people to wrap their heads around these big members because they look like they're so now where are we going with us and how are we going to get out of this inside the the way we're going to get out of this anxiety is that people that are in charge of making decisions they are they have to be people that actually are comfortable members and understand them very well and so the problem is is that those people have been listening to scientists who themselves haven't known what the truth is and what is this this is the great world shock test for epidemiologists of our time if you're a worst case scenario guy you're saying oh my god it could be terrible if you are a more optimistic sort you're thinking yeah I don't think it's too bad I think it's gonna work out yeah it's going to be a problem it's going to be a particular for our older people that it's going to be not too bad that's the Rorschach test okay we were finding now as time passes that the truth is leaning towards the not too bad okay in other words the the terrible fear that this was going to be the fear was bit was that these numbers would be potentially ten times worse than the numbers that you're sent and if it had been something like that this would have been an all-out major catastrophe that would that we would wire us to do extraordinary things for long periods of time it's now not looking at look it's looking like a mess okay pretty bad mess and it's going to have big financial implications and etc but now what we're starting to see is let me explain a couple of major things that we've learned we've learned for example that Florida is not having the same process than New York City like you know when it comes to a new mess somebody has to be first and unfortunately you know if you're the first person that goes up and takes the test in front of the group and you don't know what it's about you you look like the idiot and then the person that goes second they now know what they're up against and they can look a lot better this is what has now happened in the United States in the world so some some place had to be first and those places were Italy Spain New York City you know those were hubs of European traffic in New York is the closest major hub we have to to Europe you know the whole world goes to New York tons of plane flights New York is all concentrated they got hit and they got hit hard and it's bad okay so that's what happened in New York people looked at New York and a lot of particularly older people in New York that lived there you know a percentage of those people 1% of those older people one or two percent of those people got in trouble so and many of them lost their lives that's true so I think they've got New York City I think 15 thousand fatalities something won't go the now everybody looked at that and this of all spectrum of made public and scientists took a look at that and said look out for Florida Florida has so many older people so many people go to their retire this is going to be a disaster employed okay that would be reasonable except that now Florida is not coming first they're not the first to stand up in front of the group there's second they got see what happened in New York they got to see that our big problem is the older people and so what what Florida is doing is that they are being super careful about the nursing homes that makes sense okay this is also what's transpiring in Sweden so the the Sweden epidemiologist the head they've got a weird government there they've got a very liberal government which they've been criticized you know and criticized and applauding for the last 50 years about this government and they've got a sort of strange government where they don't have one person that's in palace or we distributed it out and so then they have this sort of very friendly relationship between the people and their government where Americans are more contentious and always fighting they just got a little different society there and so their society there they're headed there epidemiology or public health he look at the situation and he happened to be on the optimistic side of the twig snapping and he looked at and he said you know it's not like this is a new concept it's not like that a communicable virus and a dangerous virus that hasn't visited the world before this is what he's ever done Jamie ologists do and they're likely study for this but once again there was a Rorschach test and this man happened to be in charge of that without a president that is worried about a political situation because the whole country knows no this is this is our our health guy and he's he's in charge and that's just how it's going to go a lot of Swedish scientists very smart people objected and they said no we disagree with them and and I completely respect them and they should have voiced their opinion in case he felt less certain and he was to change his mind but he didn't and so in the search strange little bizarre government up in Scandinavia this guy said yeah I think it's gonna be fine I think that we need to protect our old people and he said you know what we learned because we lost a thousand or so older people pretty quickly because we didn't get it we didn't know them so now they are protecting their older people they are fatality rates are looking extremely reasonable they have their society far more open why because he recognizes that people under sixty are going to be fine if you are an older person and you are compromised and you're 75 years old and you're in a nursing mom or you're 85 years old in nursing we need to protect you okay if you're not a nursing home you need to protect yourself you need to understand you better lay low and not visit the grandchildren for a while till we learn what these next few weeks you need to be on the bench okay and it if you're a grandkid or where a mom wants to go visit your elderly mom who's living independently and she's fine then got a visitor not unless you know you're personally clean okay so this is the we don't know enough yet this is sort of stage three right now we know enough that the young cool people hanging out on the beaches aren't going to hurt each other okay they could hurt their grandmother if they go visit the grandmother and the nursing mom so that's where the action is this is now what Florida is doing Florida is saying we are going to protect our old people very carefully but that doesn't mean that we're going to be sequestering everybody else because we now know that we don't need to because we've got vast statistics now showing that are a few forty seven year-olds going to die at this yes but Barry here it's going to be why you're bad luck in a car accident just I mean you have to be exceedingly unfortunate for this to reach you if you if you are a person really under 65 it's it's really unlikely so if you're if you are over 65 and you're ill you are vulnerable well you survive almost certainly but not certain so what do you better do well that's a twig snap and you turn around and it's it's a 32 pound animal with teeth like okay it's probably not going to kill you because you're a lot bigger and you can grab the stick but it might okay so you better be careful don't be out there in the woods so the answer to the anxiety age is that the world is going to be quite a bit less anxious a month from now as they find out that Florida didn't fall apart Florida's not going to fall apart because they actually people that are making decisions do you understand what they're looking at we now do understand that the great threat of Corona is in our older people that so we now know let me give you some quick numbers we know that for example in California that over a million people have been affected the we know this from a stays in the bay area of Los Angeles the so clearly huge numbers of people have been affected not less people that is probably in Miami for example apparently 6% of people had been infected by a week or so ago or 10 days ago so in other words the virus is out there the virus is out there I may have had the virus and so you know somebody beside the virus you've been in the same room with people in that once you may have had about us I'm pretty introverted by quality I probably don't have good so I probably don't have bet I might I might happen so a million Californians found a virus you you have thousand people or so have died the vast majority of those people are older people then then you know in nursing homes or you know in compromising situations so how many young people died in California out of those million homeless night that so it's that so a million people under 60 have had the corner virus in California and it has been probably lighter than 50 fatalities so 50 out of a million it's not nothing but it's it's car accident level okay so that's why the a reasonable position now is to kind of obviously the country is antsy people's finances are in trouble so they have to do we have to start you have to begin irrational process of trade-offs and so when you when you look at cars and put cars on the road some people are going to die and when when you do certain things when people work on oil leaks people are going to get injured okay so there there are some some things about life where there are trade-offs and you can minimize your own exposure those trade-offs as much as you can or you like circular example I don't like to drive so I try to not ride very much and I Drive a car that is big and strong and so and I don't drive much at night and never drink and so and so I do a bunch of things that are out there and mitigate my risk in the autumn of it okay so I've had friends I never had friend died in an automobile but I kept friends injured and I don't want a back injury or a neck injury for the rest of my life as a result of an auto accident so I'm careful Thanks so in the same way that if you're particularly worried about this then then he's smart don't go out to restaurants and wear as long as you want to to essentially protect yourself you can be extra careful but we don't need everybody to do this in the same way that a person who wants to drive their car and they want to drive twenty-five thousand miles a year and they like to Joyride and see the countryside are they increasing their risk yeah yeah is it fair that they do so horses okay so what are their odds of survival overwhelmingly hi and that's going to be the case with humanity with respect to this particular virus we did not know this two months ago nobody in they so the right response was to panic and to look over our shoulder and be very careful the Rorschach comes in a course from scientists and politicians of all persuasions and everybody worried and some people more worried about civil rights in the economy other people more worried about the virus and the impact on other people and how we have to be responsible this is a swirling cauldron of differences of opinion we are slowly moving our way to what looks like a consensus which is we better be very careful and responsible with our older people and our older people that are not in lockdown in facilities who are the most vulnerable because you're in a facility and one person can sweep rotten through but if you are on your own in and living on your own by then you need to be wise about your own exposure if you are help compromise and so you need to you know I think New York City was particularly a bad place to be if you're an older health compromised individual because they live in an apartment so they're touching elevator buttons and they're in close proximity and restaurants that are crowded and essentially you're around a lot of people whereas if you're in if you're in Sedona Arizona and you've retired there its suburban and world and you're not crowded in with a bunch of other people all the time and so the the even if you are health compromised your odds of being in contact with high high concentration of virus are much lower and so I don't think we're going to see you know at in different places in the country people need to look at this problem at certain different levels but if you yourself personally or compromised be wise and if you are if you're like me I'm still a little careful I I have acai bowls delivered from Jamba Juice AJ and this thing is I they're my new thing all Riley burnout on acai both another mother but I discovered these about you know actually a mutual friend of ours up I'd forgotten I'm blanking on the name but I got introduced to acai bowls and and now suddenly and in the lockdown I'm I'm into him but I've weighed them off you know I'm in I'm I'm I'm fastidious right now because I don't want to have to go through a thorough an infection and and so etcetera bet I'll probably get burned out on those and and going something else in alright I think that kind of hopefully covers it your your anxiety is a natural consequence of your mind leaping to the worst-case scenario the media is makes their money by keeping you anxious and so it's not their fault that's just the the animals that they are this is a type of animal the comedian is and so and the media on the right is screening about your terrible civil rights that you're turning into a Nazi state and that and the the political persuasion of the left is saying oh my god fires terrible catastrophe and people in the middle or on all different sides of it and so you're finding catastrophic conversations on all sides component and and to my way of thinking it's like that's because we're under such deep uncertainty I don't think that we live in a police state now I don't think that the government has been unreasonable with a lot of the actions that they've taken I think that they are the appropriate thing when you look over your shoulder and you hear the twig snap you in inches I think we're going to find that there there's reason to worry and there has been but I think those reasons will become clearer and you'll have a better handle on the numbers and as that happens I think our our life is going to get a lot better pretty soon that's what I think's happening AJ well thank you thank maybe you'll come back in 30 days or maybe sooner than 30 days because this you know there was a million questions and I that's why I said at the beginning this wasn't the Q&A they want that they can join feel fabulous where do a Q&A every month or if they could have a private consultation you know we're sorry that some people have anxiety but I try to do a Q&A I wanted to you know I know listen that you have an open invitation I mean literally you just say now I can go live with you 24-hour I said at the beginning I wish there was 24-hour dr. Lisle TV whenever you just have an inkling to talk to people just text me and we'll put you on right away cuz people love to ask you questions you know alright well we'll do a Q&A again soon AJ all right well thank you so much dr. Lisle thank you all for watching come back in an hour when we have our third session of the day and a lot of people really appreciated this they said that you calm them down and that they I think if they listen to it again maybe it will help also just you know I sure hope so okay thanks dr. Lyle take care good to see you hi
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